Odaily Planet Daily reports: JPMorgan analysts say the probability of the U.S. Clarity Act for Cryptocurrency Market Structure passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a negative factor for the crypto market. The analysts note that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has fallen to this year’s lowest level, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.
JPMorgan stated that the Senate's prioritization of other legislative matters before its summer recess, combined with unresolved issues such as ethics provisions, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance, has made the prospects for the bill's advancement more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as the bill would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital assets industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would remain under the SEC’s jurisdiction.
Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it will help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, alleviate regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, enhance domestic liquidity and trading volume in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokers, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and banking platforms seeking to enter the crypto industry.