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Bitcoin's volatility over the past month has not exceeded 6%, and over the past seven days, none of the top five cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have moved more than 2%.
Market analysts say that a dull market isn't necessarily a bad sign—it could instead be an early indicator of an upcoming bull market.
An expert said Bitcoin is in "wait-and-see mode" as investors await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 28.
According to Decrypt data, Bitcoin’s volatility over the past month has remained under 6%, and it is currently trading at approximately $81,735, down 1.2% on the day. An expert stated that this leading cryptocurrency is in “watch mode,” and suggested this could be a positive development.
The entire crypto market has been recently calm. None of the top five cryptocurrencies by market cap have experienced fluctuations exceeding 2% over the past week. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently at a neutral 47. Overall, the market is quite… boring.
However, market analysts say that a sluggish market may actually signal a bull market, with opportunities still present in the market.
Jake Koch-Gallup, Senior Research Analyst at Blockworks, told Decrypt that a calm market “is usually a good sign, partly because this state doesn’t last long.” He said, “In the past, similar low-volatility periods have often been followed by 30% price moves up or down within a few months.”
Bitwise Europe Research Director André Dragosch referred to this period of calm as a “constructive signal,” explaining that prolonged periods of uneventful trading, interspersed with occasional large spikes, are typical indicators of the early stages of a bull market.
Dragosch also noted that the pullbacks during Bitcoin’s current recovery have been less severe than in previous cycles. Meanwhile, he said, volatility in crude oil, semiconductor stocks, and government bonds remains “elevated.”
Dragosch told Decrypt: “This shows that investors are increasingly willing to endure weakness and maintain their exposure.” He described this as “resilience, not frenzy.”
In contrast, Carlos Guzman, Vice President of Research at GSR, told Decrypt that a dull market is neither a good nor a bad signal; rather, he believes the market is stagnating because global markets are being dominated by "risk-off" sentiment.
Guzman said, “This is primarily driven by factors outside of cryptocurrency, with the complex macro environment and concerns over AI stocks taking center stage. As long as broader risk-off sentiment persists, we are unlikely to see a significant market breakout, so the market will likely remain volatile.”
Watch mode
Dragosch told Decrypt that Bitcoin is currently in "wait-and-see mode," caught between tightening global financial conditions and expectations that slowing growth will eventually force central banks to shift their policy direction.
To a large extent, Bitcoin is waiting for the Fed. The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 in September, followed by a 0.6% increase in September’s CPI. The Fed’s next interest rate decision will be announced on October 28, and “no one wants to place big bets until then,” said Koch-Gallup.
Dragosch said that Bitcoin is currently hovering near the "market equilibrium point," where approximately half of the invested capital is in profit and the other half is at a loss. This means, he said, that "neither buyers nor sellers currently have much incentive to pull the market away from this level."
This doesn’t mean no one was buying. Guzman noted that Bitcoin briefly dipped below $80,000 last week, but “buying pressure quickly emerged.” Data from CoinGlass shows that BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $665.2 million on Monday.
Guzman said, "The issue is that buying pressure hasn't been sustained enough to drive a lasting rally."
Next price movement
Koch-Gallup stated that over the next two weeks, three catalysts will occur: the Federal Reserve's decision on October 28, the expiration of $11.69 billion in Bitcoin options on October 30, and the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. These events could determine the next major move in the crypto market.
Koch-Gallup said: “If the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady and ETF inflows continue, I expect the market to break upward. If the Fed raises rates again, the support range of $75,000 to $77,000 will re-emerge as a key focus.”
In addition, Guzman added that a de-escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could also serve as a market catalyst.
Dragosch stated that the volatility priced into the derivatives market is significantly lower than what on-chain data suggests, meaning options are "unusually cheap right now, whether for hedging or positioning for larger bidirectional moves."
Koch-Gallup told Decrypt: “For me, a dull market is the perfect time to buy high-quality protocols before a bull market inflates their valuations.” He said he’s focused on “businesses with revenue-generating potential and strong token holder economics.”
While Bitcoin and other major tokens have been consolidating, some smaller cryptocurrencies have seen significant gains.
According to Decrypt data, Brave Browser's BAT token rose nearly 87% over the past month, reaching a market capitalization of $263 million; the card-collecting market Collector Crypt increased 95%, reaching a market capitalization of $318 million.
Koch-Gallup said, "A dull market means you have to work harder to find opportunities, not that opportunities don't exist."