Geopolitical Tensions Escalate Again, Global Risk Assets Decline Broadly
Summary
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Macro: Geopolitical conflict has intensified again, with tensions rising sharply. Reports indicate the U.S. is considering deploying ground troops to Iran, while Donald Trump posted on social media demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Against this backdrop, global risk aversion surged, U.S. Treasury yields climbed sharply, and expectations for further rate hikes strengthened. U.S. and European equity futures weakened, while Japanese and Korean stock markets opened significantly lower on Monday.
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Crypto Market: Amid escalating geopolitical risks over the weekend, the crypto market reacted first, with Bitcoin falling below $68,000 and posting two consecutive days of declines. Market panic intensified rapidly, with key sentiment indicators dropping back into single-digit levels. Bitcoin dominance declined to 58.6%, while altcoins underperformed, experiencing amplified losses during the broader market correction.
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Project Updates
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Trending Tokens: SIREN, RIVER, XMR
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SIREN: AI meme token SIREN surged 138% against the broader market trend, with gains exceeding 1,000% over the past month
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SIGN: SIGN launched a 100 million token Orange Basic Income (OBI) program, encouraging users to withdraw tokens from CEXs into self-custody wallets. Rewards are distributed based on on-chain balances and holding duration. SIGN rose 11%
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RESOLV: Following an attack, Resolv suspended all protocol functions. Its stablecoin USR briefly depegged to $0.049, while RESOLV fell over 5%
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 8 (vs. 10 24 hours ago), indicating Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
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The U.S. SEC may process Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF application as early as March 23
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Joint crypto regulatory guidance from the SEC and CFTC will officially take effect on March 23
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Polymarket is set to announce major news on March 23, with speculation around fundraising or a token launch
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Backpack will conduct its TGE on March 23
Macro Economy
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Trump demands Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to destroy power infrastructure
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Iran signals it will allow passage for non-hostile vessels through the Strait of Hormuz
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International Energy Agency warns that restoring oil and gas supply in the Gulf region could take up to six months
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U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rises to its highest level since August last year
Crypto Policy
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The U.S. House Financial Services Committee will hold a tokenization hearing on March 25, focusing on the future of capital markets
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Fidelity Investments urges the SEC to improve the regulatory framework for broker-dealers offering, custodying, and trading crypto assets via Alternative Trading Systems (ATS)
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New York Stock Exchange removes industry-wide limits on options trading for crypto ETFs
Industry Highlights
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Morgan Stanley submits an amended S-1 filing to advance its Bitcoin ETF application
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Bitcoin mining difficulty decreases by 7.76% to 133.79 T
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Google identifies an iOS exploit chain affecting iPhones running iOS 18.4–18.7, targeting multiple crypto CEX and wallet apps
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Pyth Network launches institutional-grade market data services for exchanges
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Chairman of the Solana Foundation states that blockchain gaming is “dead,” suggesting billions in industry investment may have been misallocated
Weekly Outlook
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March 23: SEC may process Morgan Stanley’s BTC ETF application; SEC–CFTC joint crypto guidance takes effect; Polymarket announcement; Backpack TGE
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March 24: U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March); G7 foreign ministers meet in Paris (Mar 24–25) to discuss ending the Iran conflict; NIL unlock (36.40%, ~$5.3M); MON unlock (0.34%, ~$3.6M)
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March 25: U.S. congressional tokenization hearing; Blockchain Association CEO to testify; Metaplanet shareholder meeting; H unlock (4.19%, ~$10.2M); XPL unlock (3.98%, ~$8.4M)
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March 26: SOON: soonBase L3 network to shut down, reallocating resources toward AI-driven capital markets
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March 27: Final readings of U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and 1-year inflation expectations (March)
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TBD: Trump reiterates 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz