Rising Tariff and Policy Uncertainty Drives Risk-Off Sentiment
Summary
-
Macroeconomy: Developments around Greenland have reignited tariff risks between the U.S. and Europe, while changes in the Federal Reserve chair nomination have undermined rate-cut expectations. U.S. equity index futures fell more than 1%, risk-off sentiment intensified, gold surged toward the 4,700 level, and silver hit a new record high.
-
Crypto Market: As macro risks were released in a concentrated manner, Bitcoin sold off in tandem with U.S. equity futures on Monday, falling below USD 93,000, pushing market sentiment back into fear territory. Bitcoin dominance briefly exceeded 60%, while altcoins broadly retraced with the market, reflecting a contraction in risk appetite.
-
Project Updates
-
Hot tokens: DUSK, RIVER, VRA
-
Safe-haven sentiment drove gold and silver to new highs, with tokenized gold and silver (XAUT, PAXG, SILVER) seeing a surge in trading volume
-
XLM: The Stellar Community Fund announced an upgrade and optimization of its funding disbursement mechanism
-
BERA: The Berachain community proposed reducing the annual inflation rate of the BGT token from 8% to around 5%
-
KAITO: X removed post-based rewards and banned “InfoFi” applications from attracting users via incentivized posting; KAITO faced controversy over alleged early token selling by the team
-
Major Asset Moves
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 44 (vs. 49 24 hours earlier), Fear
Today’s Outlook
-
U.S. equity markets closed all day for Martin Luther King Jr. Day
-
MANTRA: Token ticker change and 1:4 token split on Jan 19
-
ETHGas: Governance token $GWEI snapshot on Jan 19
-
World Economic Forum – Winter Davos (Jan 19–23)
Macroeconomy
-
Trump stated that from Feb 1 the U.S. will impose additional tariffs on eight European countries until Greenland is “fully acquired”; several EU countries are considering retaliatory tariffs on EUR 93 billion worth of U.S. exports
-
Bessent: The likelihood of the Supreme Court overturning Trump’s tariffs is low
-
Sudden shift in the Fed chair race: Hassett hinted at exiting, while Warsh’s odds rose sharply
-
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: The Fed chair nominee may be announced around Davos
Policy Watch
-
Google will remove unregistered overseas crypto exchange apps from the Korean app store starting Jan 28
-
Kazakhstan’s president signed new legislation bringing digital financial assets under regulation and allowing circulation. DFAs are classified into three categories: stablecoins, asset-backed tokens, and electronic financial instruments. The law also formally regulates unbacked digital assets (e.g., Bitcoin) and permits the establishment of central-bank-licensed crypto exchanges
-
Nigeria SEC: New rules raise the capital requirement for digital asset platforms to NGN 2 billion
-
Belgium’s second-largest bank, KBC, became the country’s first bank to offer crypto trading services to retail clients
Industry Highlights
-
Michael Saylor released another Bitcoin Tracker update, with potential disclosure of additional purchases next week
-
X removed post rewards and banned “InfoFi” applications that rely on incentivized posting
-
Chainalysis: Iran’s crypto ecosystem approached USD 8 billion in 2025
-
Bitwise survey: 32% of financial advisors have allocated crypto for clients, and 56% hold crypto in their personal portfolios
-
Solana Launchpad Bags app token creation hit its highest level since early August last year
Deep Dive into Industry Highlights
-
Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Signal and Financial Reflexivity
Michael Saylor’s recent Bitcoin Tracker update reinforces MicroStrategy’s position as the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with holdings nearing 687,000 BTC as of January 2026. His hint at a potential disclosure next week suggests more than just simple accumulation; it represents the application of a "Reflexive Financial Leverage" strategy. By issuing low-interest convertible notes or new equity when stock prices are high to acquire low-cost capital for Bitcoin purchases, MicroStrategy has successfully tethered its valuation to a Bitcoin premium. If the disclosure materializes, it will signal a commitment to "cost averaging" and "infinite accumulation," likely triggering a follow-the-leader effect among institutional peers.
-
X’s Crackdown on InfoFi and the Shift in Social Finance
X’s decision to remove post rewards and ban "InfoFi" (Information Finance) applications marks a decisive pivot against crypto-native marketing tactics. While InfoFi incentivized engagement and created massive visibility, it also led to an explosion of "AI slop" and spam comments that degraded the user experience. For projects like Kaito or Cookie, this move cuts off a primary growth engine, forcing them to evolve from simple traffic distribution toward deeper social data mining and AI content synthesis. This underscores a broader trend: Web3 social apps must find growth paths independent of traditional social media APIs.
-
Iran’s Crypto Ecosystem: Geopolitics and Asset Preservation
The Chainalysis report showing Iran’s crypto ecosystem approaching $8 billion in 2025 highlights the asset class's role in "anti-sanction" and "wealth preservation" efforts. Against a backdrop of 40%-50% inflation and the volatile Rial, Bitcoin and stablecoins have become essential tools for Iranian citizens and businesses to bypass financial isolation and facilitate cross-border trade. Notably, with over 50% of on-chain activity linked to specific institutional entities, the data suggests that cryptocurrency serves both as a "financial lifeline" for the public and a strategic tool for capital flow management in complex political environments.
-
Financial Advisors: "Personal First" and the Institutional Inflection Point
The Bitwise survey reveals a compelling gap: 56% of advisors personally hold crypto, yet only 32% have allocated it for their clients. This "conviction-to-action" lag indicates that while professionals recognize the long-term value, compliance hurdles and custodial friction remain the final barriers to mass institutional entry. As Spot ETFs become global standards in 2026, advisors are shifting their perspective from viewing crypto as "digital gold" to focusing on Stablecoins and Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization, suggesting that a massive reallocation from equity and cash pools is imminent.
-
Solana’s Bags App and the Resurgence of Long-Tail Assets
The surge in token creation on Solana-based launchpads like Bags—hitting its highest level since August 2025—reflects a renewed appetite for "Long-Tail Assets" and "Fair Launches." Solana has solidified its position as the premier playground for retail micro-experimentation, thanks to its sub-cent transaction fees and high throughput. Although less than 1% of the 11 million+ tokens launched on Solana in 2025 achieved mainstream liquidity, this high-frequency, bottom-up activity generates significant network fees and maintains a "user activity moat" that competitors find difficult to replicate.