Strong NFP dampens rate-cut expectations; BTC remains range-bound
Summary
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Macro: US January nonfarm payrolls came in strong overall, further suppressing expectations for near-term rate cuts. Traders have pushed back the timing of the first rate cut from June to July. US equities opened higher but pulled back, dragged down by weakness in mega-cap tech, with all three major indices closing slightly lower. Concerns over AI disruption continued to ferment, with software ETFs down 2.6%. Metals remained in elevated consolidation: spot gold rose 1.3% amid choppy gains, while silver spiked intraday before retreating, still up over 4%.
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Crypto market: BTC dipped to a low of 65.7k and briefly rebounded to around 67k after the NFP release, reflecting marginal macro easing. In the absence of clearer external catalysts or confirmed capital inflows, BTC is likely to maintain a range-bound consolidation pattern. Altcoins broadly followed the pullback. Market sentiment remains in the fear zone, with no clear trend-reversal momentum yet forming.
Project Developments
Trending tokens: AZTEC, UNI, ZRO, PIPPIN, CLANKER
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AZTEC: TGE on Feb 12; major exchanges launched derivatives or pre-market trading.
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UNI: Uniswap Labs partnered with Securitize; BlackRock disclosed plans to purchase UNI tokens.
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ZRO: LayerZero released its “Zero World Computer” architecture, sparking major discussion. Several overseas KOLs called it “the most important blockchain since Ethereum”; +20% in 24h.
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PIPPIN: Continuous capital inflows since early week, surging social media attention and FOMO sentiment. Up over 100% this week and over 32% yesterday.
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CLANKER: Clanker developers announced a restart of token issuance via X posts.
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ISLM: HAQQ network launched Ethereum L2 solution Ethiq, pushing token price up over 90% intraday. However, compliance controversies remain regarding crypto and Islamic finance alignment.
Major Asset Moves
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Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 5 (24h ago: 11) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Key Events to Watch
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US January PPI YoY
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Deadline for FCA consultation on UK crypto regulatory proposals
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Federal judge pauses Connecticut enforcement of anti-betting law against Kalshi; oral arguments scheduled
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Aztec TGE
Macroeconomy
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US House narrowly rejects motion, allowing Trump tariff resolution to proceed to full House vote.
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US January 2026 nonfarm payrolls: +130k; unemployment rate 4.3% (down 0.1pp MoM).
Policy & Regulatory Direction
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Hong Kong SFC planning regulatory framework for perpetual futures, limited to institutional investors.
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Bank Negara Malaysia to test real-use cases involving MYR stablecoins and tokenized deposits in 2026.
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Japan FSA released draft guidelines to strengthen cybersecurity for crypto exchanges and opened consultation.
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Hong Kong SFC allows licensed virtual brokers to offer margin financing.
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White House stablecoin yield discussions progressing; banks for the first time signal openness to reward exemptions.
Industry Highlights
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SafePal and Solana launched a $3M ecosystem incentive program.
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Spark introduced Spark Prime and Spark Institutional lending services for hedge funds and other institutions.
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Robinhood launched Robinhood Chain, selecting Chainlink as oracle provider.
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Stripe released machine payments preview supporting USDC payments on Base via the x402 protocol.
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MoonPay partnered with Deel to launch stablecoin payroll services in the UK and EU.
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DB Securities partnered with Solana to advance STO development in South Korea, planning to tokenize K-POP IP.
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Abstract integrated ERC-8004 to support AI agent identity portability and reputation verification.
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Renaiss completed Infinite Gacha testing, surpassing $700K in daily trading volume.
Deep Dive: Industry Highlights (Feb 12, 2026)
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SafePal and Solana Launch $3M Ecosystem Incentive Program
SafePal announced a $3M commitment to bolster the Solana ecosystem during the Solana Accelerate event in Hong Kong. This initiative provides more than just capital; it includes specialized hardware wallet support and comprehensive marketing packages. Projects are evaluated based on Monthly Active Users (MAU), Total Value Locked (TVL), and community impact, aiming to solidify Solana’s position as a leading high-performance blockchain through a synergy of hardware and software.
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Spark Introduces Prime and Institutional Lending Services
As a dominant force in DeFi, Spark has launched Spark Prime, focusing on margin lending and OTC settlement, alongside Spark Institutional, which enables institutions to access stablecoin credit without direct DeFi protocol interaction. By partnering with regulated custodians like Anchorage Digital, the project has already secured approximately $150 million in institutional commitments, marking a significant push for DeFi protocols into Traditional Finance (TradFi).
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Robinhood Launches Robinhood Chain with Chainlink as Oracle Provider
Robinhood Chain is a finance-grade Ethereum Layer 2 built on Arbitrum, specifically engineered for the tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA). By integrating Chainlink’s data oracles and compliance frameworks, Robinhood aims to eliminate trust barriers for institutions issuing and settling assets on-chain. This move accelerates the adoption of Delivery versus Payment (DvP) and atomic settlements in mainstream finance.
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Stripe Releases Machine Payments Preview Supporting USDC on Base
Stripe has enabled payment support for autonomous AI agents via the x402 protocol. This innovation allows AI programs to pay for API calls, compute power, or data access using USDC on the Base network without human intervention. This is considered a milestone for "Machine Economy" infrastructure, solving the challenge of cross-border, high-frequency micro-payments for AI agents.
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MoonPay and Deel Partner for Stablecoin Payroll in the UK and EU
Payments gateway MoonPay has teamed up with global HR giant Deel to allow businesses in the UK and EU to pay salaries directly in stablecoins (such as USDC/USDT). With Deel processing roughly $22 billion in payroll annually, this partnership leverages MoonPay’s compliant off-ramps to transform crypto from a speculative tool into a practical utility, significantly speeding up settlements for international remote workers.
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DB Securities and Solana Advance South Korean STOs and K-POP IP
South Korea’s DB Securities signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Solana Foundation to build a Security Token Offering (STO) capital market on the Solana blockchain. The partnership plans to tokenize high-impact K-POP Intellectual Property (IP), allowing fans to transition from passive consumers to active investors with revenue-sharing rights. This marks a formal endorsement of high-performance public chains by South Korean regulated financial institutions.
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Abstract Integrates ERC-8004 for AI Agent Identity and Reputation
By adopting the ERC-8004 standard (known as the "Trustless Smart Agent" standard), Abstract provides AI agents with a digital "ID card" on the blockchain. This standard utilizes NFT-based identity registration, reputation logging, and skill verification to solve trust issues in decentralized environments. This allows AI agents to carry their credit history across different platforms without needing validation from a centralized authority.
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Renaiss Completes Infinite Gacha Testing with Over $700K Daily Volume
Renaiss, an RWA infrastructure project on the BNB Chain, successfully completed stress testing for its Gacha V2 (Infinite Pool) module. During the test, over 7,000 PSA-certified physical Pokémon cards were drawn and converted into tradeable on-chain assets, with daily volume surpassing $700,000. This data validates the high demand and system capacity for bringing physical collectibles into the Web3 market through RWA frameworks.