**Analysis of the Crypto Narnia** **Key Theme Breakdown** - The chat is debating cycles: a 4-year cycle break is unlikely; the base scenario is a short relief in February–March, followed by sideways movement or pressure. - Fundstrat/Tom Lee's leak: privately, they expect a correction in H1'26 (BTC 60–65k, ETH 1.8–2k, SOL 50–75), but publicly, they're pushing a bullish narrative. The crowd reacts with aggression and cynicism. - Altseason is in question: LTC was "spared no mercy," old PoW coins and niches are spiking, liquidity is thin, and NFTs within the chat swing +26%/–24% in a day. - Between the lines: longs are scared and tired: "crypto is for losses," but local pumps immediately trigger FOMO. - Conclusion: play the "relief-de-crediting" scenario without altcoin fanaticism, reduce leverage, don't buy "stories"—buy levels. **Ideas and Genes** 1. **BTC/ETH/SOL** — relief in Feb–Mar as a window to de-risk. Plan: partial profit-taking on the rise, pivot to stables/hedging, don't average in alts on emotions. 2. **Fundstrat forecast (H1'26 correction)** — not a "sell everything" signal, but a framework for risk management in terms of cash/DCA timing and leverage. Keep it in mind as one of the base scenarios. 3. **Airdrops/Base** — pool math is floating (2–10m), "$1.2k on the nose" is not guaranteed. Useful: read the terms, don't confuse rumors with calls, protect against sybil/bans. 4. **Metals XAU/XAG** — the chat is strongly biased toward long silver/gold until 2026. For cryptos: consider as diversification/hedging in a separate book (XAU/XAG on MEX/INJ), no overleverage. 5. **Solana/SUI gaming** — grants and "gaming hype" are discussed for a few months ahead. Watchlist: Solana/SUI launchpads, but check contracts/tokenomics thoroughly—farming loops often break. 6. **AI moderation/referral PWA** — building an auditor with video finalization of events. The niche is growing: can be tested for communities/events or considered as early infrastructure. 7. **Operational risks** — case of "copying an address from history" and deposit mishap. Minimum: allowlist addresses, limits, hardware wallets, double-check memos/chain. 8. **Old PoW alts (ZEC)** — selling on spikes (775) is mentioned as a tactic. Use as "sell strength," not chasing candles. 9. **NFTs within the community (Proof of Narnian)** — high volatility with thin liquidity. Sentiment signal, not a place for size. **Context and Mood** - Fatigue and cynicism: "crypto is a scam," "no altseason," but FOMO flares up with any pump. - Much talk about metals as a "safe haven," some moving to physical/perps on XAU/XAG. - Info chaos: public bulls vs private cautious forecasts increase distrust. - Thin liquidity: alts/internal NFTs are torn, spreads are wide, leverage is killing. - Geopolitical noise (Iran/Israel/Trump, "Epstein files") adds anxiety. - Builders keep chugging (referrals, AI-audit, new L2), maintaining "build-mode" among the core.