**Myths About HODLing (Ponzi) Coins** Families active in the market in 2022/2023 are certainly familiar with the term "HODLing," although those who joined in 2025 may have never heard of it. Back then, many pioneers advocated for "HODLing," and it wasn't about Bitcoin — it was about altcoins. I remember Hong Shen (later proven to be a scammer) providing a list of ten altcoins to HODL at the time. Similar lists of "which coins to HODL" were widely shared. In today's market, however, almost no one is HODLing anymore. Nor does anyone believe that HODLing is the secret to financial freedom. This shift in itself is telling. Overall, this bull run that has now ended had three major uplegs: November 2023 to March 2024; November to December 2024; and April to August 2025. During these three waves, Bitcoin reached heights of $73,777, $100,000, and $126,000 respectively. Meanwhile, altcoins like $NEAR peaked at $9, $8, and $3.30. While Bitcoin's peaks kept rising, altcoins showed a pattern of "progressively lower highs." The basic logic of HODLing for many families was still rooted in the belief that altcoins and Bitcoin would "synchronize and surge together." Thus, during the March 2024 peak, many didn't consider selling, thinking "there's a bigger one coming." But in 2025, only one big wave actually came. Let me reiterate — 2025 was truly an unexpected year in every way. After the beating of 2025, the idea of HODLing seems to have lost all credibility. Except for @CredibleCrypto, who still holds CRV and believes it can go to $6, most people probably don't hold much altcoin spot anymore. I think there are a few key questions we need to consider regarding HODLing: --- **1. Why did HODLers fail this time?** The main reason, I believe, is that this bull run didn't follow the "one-sided" structure of 2020–2021, but instead took the form of "three smaller bull waves." At the same time, altcoins fundamentally experienced a large-range consolidation rather than a sustained upward trend. This caused those trying to replicate the 2020–2021 experience to face painful losses. As the saying goes, "One cannot step into the same river twice." This is exactly what it means. --- **2. Why was 2025 especially painful?** Using a macroeconomic model to explain, I think the main reason for the lack of growth in 2025 was the U.S. being in an economic contraction cycle combined with a high-interest-rate environment, which prevented most coins from rising. Bitcoin's rise was due to Trump's "performance," and it doesn't represent the majority of coins. This has been discussed in many previous articles, so I won't go into detail here. --- **3. Altcoins are now in a full bear market** The problem we are now "forced to face" is that while Bitcoin remains at a relatively high level and the U.S. stock market is hitting new highs (with a top divergence), altcoins have already fallen to the bottom. Take $NEAR as an example. In October 2023, it was $0.9, and it rose to $9 in March 2024 — a near 10x gain. Now, the price has returned to $1.50. Yet both Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market remain at high levels. So, if I want to HODL $NEAR, should I buy in now? If Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market still have room to fall, it's hard for me to justify buying in now. But this price is already at a "bottom," especially for a fully circulating and relatively high-market-cap coin. So it's an awkward situation. If Bitcoin and altcoins bottom out together, and it's in a bear market year of the four-year cycle, people will feel more confident about buying in. But if altcoins have already reached this level in 2025, while Bitcoin is at a "relative high" and the U.S. stock market is in its "third wave of exhaustion," and it's only been two months since the bear market began, it's very hard to predict what will happen next. --- **4. Where is the bottom for altcoins?** @0xENAS says altcoins are close to the bottom. I agree that this "closeness" is relative to the "top." If a coin drops from $10 to $1 and is now at $2, it's certainly close to the bottom — but that doesn't mean the remaining decline will be small. From $2 to $1 is still a 50% drop. Take $SOL as an example. Its highest price in 2021 was $260, and it fell to $80 in March 2022 — already close to the bottom. But after a rebound, it dropped to $30 in September. After the FTX incident, it further fell to $8. So it first dropped 70%, then another 60%, and then another 70%. $80 is indeed closer to $8 than to $260. But it can still halve three more times. At the same time, whether you bought in at $80, $30, or $8, you're still in profit today. So I don't doubt that the current price is closer to the bottom than the top. But many coins could still halve again in the future. Moreover, even if many coins halve again in 2026, I still believe their prices in 2027–2029 will be much higher than they are now. When it comes to finding an absolute bottom, I think it's essential to prepare for the worst-case scenario. At the same time, we can't lose sight of the vision for the future. --- **Sponsored by #BCGAME | @bcgame @bcgamecoin**