eth thesis has been weakening consistently for years, solana this cycle dominated retail activity, hyperliquid dominated perps activity, rollups still have yet to gain significant traction & vitalik publicly abandoned gen usage rollup thesis eth's main value prop has been safety + security of defi & insto interest, current aave situation is mark on that value prop that has possibility to continue weakening confidence eth in 2026 is in worse spot than it was in 2023, amplified by ai doing extremely well & tech stocks being much more favorable investments with real revenues / emerging narratives / increasing momentum, eth is $300B asset with ton of overhang from tom lee topblasting + complacent eth holders sitting idle in defi protocols ta-wise its in sustained downtrend after failing to break through multi year res levels & at current range highs of multi month bearish consolidation range, if downtrend continues should target lows of 2025 around $1300 & then lows of bear market around 2022 tight invalidation 2377 assuming problems worsen if you want to play it loose assuming other risk assets continues doing well & drags it up probably somewhere around 2700/2800 invalidation fundamentals wise would want to see breakout activity from some new vertical