This is an important macro morning. It has multiple important and less important releases at the same time, which means the initial reaction can be strong with further unpredictable volatility, as well as directional moves. 1. Gross Domestic Product (Q2, Advance) Impact: strong This is the first estimate of Q2 GDP and is the one markets care about most. Expected: 1.8% Previous: 2.1% It directly affects growth expectations and earnings outlook. 2. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE & Core PCE) - important inflation measure Impact: strong Headline PCE MoM: -0.1% Headline PCE YoY: 3.7% Core PCE MoM: 0.2% Core PCE YoY: 3.3% 3. Personal Income Impact: medium Expected: 0.3% Interesting because it shows whether spending is sustainable. 4. Personal Spending Impact: medium Expected: 0.3% Supports or contradicts the GDP picture. 5. Initial Jobless Claims Impact: weak (stronger only if numbers differ much). This is one of the highest-volatility 8:30 mornings of the quarter, with all impacts amplified by yesterday's rate date.
Sergey StolyarovShare
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