Michael Burry shorted semiconductors, so should we too? Burri’s position reflects the end-of-quarter 13F filing. So should we just follow along because “Burri shorted semiconductors”? If you’re going to short, you should’ve done it earlier. Even Burry got trapped in his short and has only recently seen some relief. So what should we do, following Burry? The answer is: nothing. I don’t care whether his thesis still holds today—the conclusion hasn’t changed. If Burry doesn’t hold the stocks he shorted, that’s good. If he does, he’s likely already made substantial profits. (Exceptions aside.) More importantly, adjusting your position based on someone else’s—whether it’s Burry or anyone else—is just a variation of hindsight bias. Are you selling because you’re uneasy seeing a famous investor shorting? That’s elevating “someone else’s conviction” to the status of a trading trigger—even though it’s neither a closing price nor a technical signal. My framework doesn’t include that input field. Burry might be right. But whether he’s right is determined by his entry price and timing—not by copying him midway through. When the market punishes memory, it does so through Hynix’s stock price and its 7/29 earnings report. When the market doubts AI capex, it reacts through downward revisions to capex guidance. Right now, there are no such signals from either. Big Tech capex has actually increased. Of course, we must remain cautious about claims that memory demand is solid—I’ve mentioned this several times on X. That’s why I’ve exited my memory stock positions. If I re-enter, it will only be after Hynix’s earnings report. I remain alert to signs of a memory cycle slowdown—but I’ll confirm any shift based on Hynix’s earnings. Does that mean I should exit all other AI-related stocks too? Not yet. A hard trigger would only occur if Big Tech announced plans to cut capex—but right now, they’re doing the opposite: increasing it. No matter how many rumors I hear from various sources, they’re just noise that adds zero value to my investment decisions. The next key checkpoint: Hynix’s earnings on 7/29.