The period from 1990 to 2020 was a massive short-volatility position written on the market. Globalization, cheap labor, cheap energy, and abundant savings suppressed inflation’s left tail while continuously generating duration bids in bonds. Since 2020, this position has been unwinding. The market now prices in not only policy rates but also a new term premium driven by energy security, defense spending, supply chain resilience, and budget deficits. Therefore, the fundamental question for the next decade is not “Will the 10-year bond yield reach 8%?” but rather: Has the global equilibrium interest rate permanently shifted to a higher regime? If the answer is yes, then the vast majority of discount rate assumptions that underpinned asset valuations over the past thirty years—from equities to real estate, from private equity to tech valuations—will need to be rewritten.
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