source avatarArchitect🛡️

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Seems like a good chance we'll get a 50% drawdown from ATH in semis and AI names over the summer. We were overextended. Companies are reigning in token spend. There's a clear inflection that already started a month ago in the s-curve. Gonna be lots of narrative shifts around the sustainability and profitability of infra spend going forward. OpenAI and Anthropic are toast as more people realize that those will be the lowest margin megacap tech businesses ever conceived. Semis and app layer will be fine and whoever has the massive cajones to buy this capitulation dip will be rewarded. Don't overreact just from today. These have been my feelings for weeks. Today is mostly about rerating rate cuts for the remainder of the year. The strong jobs report means there cannot be any, and the chance of hikes has considerably increased. So don't confuse a rates story with a long-term AI uptrend despite what the narratives will surely say over the ensuing weeks.

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