The second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations still did not take place. At the final moment before the ceasefire deadline last night, Trump announced an indefinite ceasefire but maintained sanctions, and Iran agreed to suspend military operations—though the war has not ended. The core issue remains what was discussed on Monday: neither side truly wants to continue fighting, but neither has yet secured sufficient leverage to fully pressure the other, and both are reluctant to soften their demands. As long as tensions don’t escalate further, markets can breathe a sigh of relief. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and America’s blockade of Iran’s coastline have effectively turned this into an economic war of attrition. Iran’s Achilles’ heel is the sustainability of its domestic economy, while Trump’s is the duration of high oil prices. Right now, time is slightly favoring the United States.