BTC pierced overhead resistance at 126,200 on Friday and Saturday, but the reaction since then still looks like a pivot high to me. The short-term support fan is starting to give way, RSI already did its job, and I still think any bounce toward 75,500 looks more like a retest before another move lower. Bigger picture, I am still expecting a red May and June, with 60K feeling likely first, then 49K and possibly 38,555 if the full bear market unwind plays out. Even with weekly TBT bullish divergences on BTC and TOTALES, I am not treating this as a trend change. We have seen these print early before real bottoms form, and last week's upper wick into the fast line looked more like a warning than a breakout. Stablecoin dominance still looks ready to push higher on the next crypto pullback, while OTHERS already got rejected at the top of the cloud. ETH is still weak relative to the move people wanted to see. It confirmed a weekly TBT bullish divergence, but in a bottom year that does not suddenly make me bullish, and I still think a move toward 1,000 is on the table. DXY still looks capable of closing the gap at 99.516, USDJPY remains a risk if that happens, S&P futures look overly euphoric after a huge reversal, NK225 looks stretched, and WTI, gold, and uranium are all flashing setups worth respecting. On the watchlist, BNB is back at a fast line retest, XLM is still in bullish consolidation but divergence risk is building, BIANRENSHENG looks like a late-stage exhaustion move, MON may bounce toward the 0.618, MNT printed ugly volume on its drop, RIVER and PIPPIN still look like bear market traps, HYPE and RENDER look lower after bounce attempts, AAVE probably gets a reflex bounce after the exploit-driven flush, CFX and LDO still look like exhaustion rallies, ZBCN looks heavy once support breaks, RAVE is pure danger, and TAO is interesting later but I would rather wait for BTC to finish pulling back.

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