📊 [XWIN TREND INDEX | April 18, 2026] Composite Score: 74 / 100 ・80–100 = Strong Uptrend ・60–79 = Mild Uptrend ・40–59 = Neutral / No Clear Direction ・20–39 = Mild Downtrend ・0–19 = Strong Downtrend Directional Sentiment: Mild Uptrend The rally continues to be driven by short covering, yet market psychology remains weak—this is a phase of “rally amid skepticism.” ――――――――――――――――――― Market Summary ・BTC has recovered to the $77,000 range and is now approaching $78K. ・ETH has risen to around $2,450, signaling early signs of capital returning to the altcoin market. ・With expectations of renewed Strait of Hormuz traffic and ceasefire prospects, crude oil has dropped approximately 10–12%, fueling a risk-on environment. ・Equity markets have surged by $550 billion in market cap, indicating renewed capital inflows into risk assets. ・BTC has clearly entered the phase of being bought as a risk asset. ・However, geopolitical risks remain unresolved, creating a “halfway-stable” condition. ・High volatility driven by news events continues. ・Overall structure: “Macro-driven risk-on × lingering uncertainty.” ――――――――――――――――――― On-chain & Technical Trends ・Approximately $800 million in liquidations occurred over the past 24 hours, predominantly short positions being liquidated upward. ・Another $400 million in short liquidations occurred in the last 4 hours, sustaining upward pressure. ・BTC outflows from exchanges have accelerated, clearly signaling supply compression. ・Whale and shark layers continue accumulating a total of 650,000 BTC. ・Rising CVD confirms institutional and large-scale buying activity. ・However, whale inflows to exchanges have also increased, suggesting emerging selling pressure at higher levels. ・The STH cost zone (~$75K–$83K) remains a critical battleground. ・Structure: “Reduced supply + short-heavy positioning → favorable for upside squeezes,” yet profit-taking pressure is becoming visible at upper levels. ――――――――――――――――――― Sentiment ・Fear & Greed Index remains at 21, indicating Extreme Fear persists. ・Despite price gains, bullish-to-bearish sentiment ratio is inverted at 2:3. ・The market has entered a classic “disbelief” phase. ・Retail investors remain fatigued by geopolitical news and maintain cautious behavior. ・Negative funding rates are easing, but long positioning has not yet taken over. ・High levels of FUD and profit-taking are paradoxically fueling continued upside momentum. ・Altcoins show early signs of recovery but have not yet entered a full-fledged trend. ・Overall: “Psychology is weak, but supply and demand fundamentals are clearly strong.” ――――――――――――――――――― Traditional U.S. Markets ・Equity markets have surged amid risk-on recovery, with accelerating capital inflows. ・Tech stocks like Microsoft have risen over 20% in a short period, showing signs of overheating. ・Early profit-taking has begun to emerge in some sectors. ・Crude oil has fallen below $80/barrel, temporarily easing inflationary pressures. ・Gold has risen, reflecting continued demand as a hedge against uncertainty. ・Increased capital inflows into Chinese bonds signal growing diversification trends. ・Macro environment reflects a complex structure: “Risk-on + diversification.” ・This is not a full “safe-haven” rally, but rather a “conditional risk-on” environment. ――――――――――――――――――― Overall Assessment The market has progressed beyond “rally amid skepticism” and entered the initial phase of a “short-squeeze-driven trend.” Supply and demand fundamentals are clearly strong—supported by supply compression, large-scale accumulation, and heavy short positioning—yet sentiment remains entrenched in Extreme Fear, making profit-taking pressure likely at higher levels. Today’s key watchpoints: ① Whether BTC can break above $78K–$83.5K, ② Changes in short open interest and funding rates, ③ Continuity of ETF flows, ④ Whale exchange inflows, ⑤ Geopolitical headlines. Conclusion: The “mild uptrend” continues—but this is a high-volatility early-stage market where short squeezes and pullback selling are occurring simultaneously.