ChainCatcher report: White Whale Labs has released a study titled “The Audit Of The Memecoin Casino,” which documents all new token trades on Pump.fun and Stonk on Solana since late August, covering 384 million swaps across over 1 million liquidity pools and 7.7 million wallets—amounting to more than 56 GB of data and 820 million rows. This dataset adds 18 to 25 million new transactions daily, up to approximately 1 million new wallets, and over 60,000 newly launched projects. The study finds that approximately one in ten tokens with real trading volume doubles within the subsequent 24 hours. Of the 22.8 million first-time purchases over two weeks, 17% doubled before dropping 40%; when accounting for costs and applying a take-profit at doubling and stop-loss at 40% decline, the average trade results in a net loss of about 19%. Clusters of 450 to 2,000 wallets frequently make concentrated purchases within one or two minutes after launch; tokens associated with these clusters have a doubling rate of 28% to 46%, and 50% to 60% of their entries double before a 40% drop—significantly higher than the 17% rate for other wallets. Between 9 and 33 such clusters are identified daily. Backtesting with delayed trading—entering two minutes after major clusters—resulted in an average loss of 41% per token across 93 tokens, with a median decline of 95%. Even tracking only groups with positive historical records yielded an average loss of 11% per token; backtesting on individual wallets resulted in an average loss of 20% per trade. A small number of tightly coordinated groups achieved approximately 10% profit per token on 16 tokens. A neural network improved the prediction rate of doubling from ~10% to 26%, but over eight days and 771 selections, daily results were negative, with an average loss of ~11% per trade, a median decline of 45%, and 55% triggering stop-loss within 24 hours. White Whale Labs concludes that after spending thousands of dollars on API, VPS, and modeling costs, no profitable edge was found, and asserts that memecoin trading is almost entirely driven by cluster wallets.
White Whale Labs: Solana Meme Coin Trading Driven by Cluster Wallets
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Summary
White Whale Labs reported that whale activity is a key factor in Solana meme coin trading, based on an analysis of over 384 million transactions on Pump.fun and Stonk since late August. Cluster wallets containing 450 to 2,000 addresses frequently triggered price spikes, with 28% to 46% of tokens doubling in value within minutes. Despite high trading volume and modeling costs, the study found no consistent profit advantage from these patterns.
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