CoinMarketCap reports — On Tuesday morning in Asian trading, WTI crude oil traded around $96.76, having previously dipped to $94.30 overnight, its lowest level since October 16, before beginning a recovery. Under Qatari mediation, U.S.-Iran talks continue but have yet to achieve substantive breakthroughs; the market is gradually absorbing part of the geopolitical risk premium, with traders awaiting tonight’s API crude oil inventory report for guidance on supply and demand expectations.
CoinMarketCap APP reports — The U.S. benchmark crude oil, WTI, rebounded to around $96.76 during early Asian trading on Tuesday, recovering from a previous session low of $94.30. According to market surveys, Iran has indicated that U.S.-Iran negotiations aimed at ending the eight-month-long conflict are still progressing, with both sides having developed revised proposals after multiple rounds of mediation, though no major consensus has yet been reached. Iranian Foreign Minister Alireza Araghchi stated that communication facilitated by mediators has been intensive, with Iran having presented its conditions and proposals; the next steps depend on the U.S. side’s policy rationality. On the U.S. side, the president previously indicated that no military action against Iran would be launched before the midterm elections, while the Iranian president has also signaled a preference for resolving differences through dialogue.
The head of TD Securities' commodities strategy noted that much of the recent market rally has been driven by a risk premium stemming from expectations of escalating conflict; a substantive breakthrough in negotiations would exert significant downward pressure on oil prices. However, the institution also cautioned that as long as the conflict remains unresolved and attacks on tankers and incidents in the Red Sea continue, diplomatic developments alone are unlikely to fully eliminate the geopolitical risk premium in oil. Recent diplomatic利好 messages have already absorbed part of the risk premium, and combined with elevated market liquidity, geopolitical news has significantly amplified its impact on oil prices—though the conditions for a complete removal of the premium are not yet in place.
On the short-term supply and demand front, market focus shifts to the U.S. Petroleum Association (API) crude oil inventory report due to be released Tuesday evening. If the crude oil inventory decline exceeds market expectations, it will confirm demand resilience and provide support to oil prices; conversely, if the inventory increase surpasses estimates, it may indicate weak demand or oversupply, exerting downward pressure on WTI prices. Current trade-related concerns have limited impact, with geopolitical developments and U.S. inventory data remaining the two key drivers of short-term oil price movements.
On the daily chart, WTI oil prices remain above the 100-day moving average, maintaining a medium-term bullish foundation. Prices are trading in the upper half of the recent Bollinger Bands, currently near the middle band. This rally has not yet entered an accelerated upward phase. The 14-period RSI is around 48, indicating neutral overall momentum between buyers and sellers. The first resistance level above is the Bollinger Middle Band at 96.80, with stronger resistance at the upper band at 104.95. Below, immediate buying interest is concentrated around the current trading range, with deeper support levels at the Bollinger Lower Band at 88.70 and the 100-day moving average at 85.85. If prices retest this moving average on a deeper pullback, buying interest is expected to emerge, supporting the medium-term uptrend. On the 4-hour chart, prices have recently formed a recovery structure from the lows, with short-term moving averages turning upward and indicators gradually recovering from oversold levels without entering overbought territory—suggesting continued upward momentum to test resistance. However, if new signs of de-escalation emerge in negotiations or API inventory data shows a significant increase, the rally could stall and reverse back toward support. Confirmation of sustained bullish momentum requires fundamental catalysts.
Editor's Summary
The core driver of this round of oil price volatility is the repricing of geopolitical risk premiums. Ongoing diplomatic efforts have led to a partial unwinding of these premiums, primarily triggering the earlier price correction. However, as the conflict remains unresolved and disruptions to shipping persist, risk premiums cannot be fully eliminated at once, providing continued medium-term support. Short-term risks center on substantive progress in negotiations causing a rapid decline in premiums, or a significant build-up in U.S. inventories pressuring oil prices lower. Potential opportunities lie in negotiations stalling or an increase in shipping attacks, which could reignite geopolitical risk premiums and push prices higher. Trading strategies should avoid chasing rallies blindly; closely monitor API inventory data and real-time developments on Middle East negotiations, wait for confirmation signals at key support and resistance levels, and remain cautious of sharp oil price swings triggered by rapidly shifting geopolitical news.
The head of TD Securities' commodities strategy noted that much of the recent market rally has been driven by a risk premium stemming from expectations of escalating conflict; a substantive breakthrough in negotiations would exert significant downward pressure on oil prices. However, the institution also cautioned that as long as the conflict remains unresolved and attacks on tankers and incidents in the Red Sea continue, diplomatic developments alone are unlikely to fully eliminate the geopolitical risk premium in oil. Recent diplomatic利好 messages have already absorbed part of the risk premium, and combined with elevated market liquidity, geopolitical news has significantly amplified its impact on oil prices—though the conditions for a complete removal of the premium are not yet in place.
On the short-term supply and demand front, market focus shifts to the U.S. Petroleum Association (API) crude oil inventory report due to be released Tuesday evening. If the crude oil inventory decline exceeds market expectations, it will confirm demand resilience and provide support to oil prices; conversely, if the inventory increase surpasses estimates, it may indicate weak demand or oversupply, exerting downward pressure on WTI prices. Current trade-related concerns have limited impact, with geopolitical developments and U.S. inventory data remaining the two key drivers of short-term oil price movements.
On the daily chart, WTI oil prices remain above the 100-day moving average, maintaining a medium-term bullish foundation. Prices are trading in the upper half of the recent Bollinger Bands, currently near the middle band. This rally has not yet entered an accelerated upward phase. The 14-period RSI is around 48, indicating neutral overall momentum between buyers and sellers. The first resistance level above is the Bollinger Middle Band at 96.80, with stronger resistance at the upper band at 104.95. Below, immediate buying interest is concentrated around the current trading range, with deeper support levels at the Bollinger Lower Band at 88.70 and the 100-day moving average at 85.85. If prices retest this moving average on a deeper pullback, buying interest is expected to emerge, supporting the medium-term uptrend. On the 4-hour chart, prices have recently formed a recovery structure from the lows, with short-term moving averages turning upward and indicators gradually recovering from oversold levels without entering overbought territory—suggesting continued upward momentum to test resistance. However, if new signs of de-escalation emerge in negotiations or API inventory data shows a significant increase, the rally could stall and reverse back toward support. Confirmation of sustained bullish momentum requires fundamental catalysts.
Editor's Summary
The core driver of this round of oil price volatility is the repricing of geopolitical risk premiums. Ongoing diplomatic efforts have led to a partial unwinding of these premiums, primarily triggering the earlier price correction. However, as the conflict remains unresolved and disruptions to shipping persist, risk premiums cannot be fully eliminated at once, providing continued medium-term support. Short-term risks center on substantive progress in negotiations causing a rapid decline in premiums, or a significant build-up in U.S. inventories pressuring oil prices lower. Potential opportunities lie in negotiations stalling or an increase in shipping attacks, which could reignite geopolitical risk premiums and push prices higher. Trading strategies should avoid chasing rallies blindly; closely monitor API inventory data and real-time developments on Middle East negotiations, wait for confirmation signals at key support and resistance levels, and remain cautious of sharp oil price swings triggered by rapidly shifting geopolitical news.