## Market Overview
The probability of Ethereum reaching $4,000 in April is currently 0.4% (yes), a significant decline from 1% over the past 24 hours. Similarly, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $79,000 by April 30 is currently 0.6% (yes), also down from previous levels.
## Key Points
A series of recent cryptocurrency protocol hacks appear to have eroded confidence in Ethereum’s security, with market prices suggesting a reduced likelihood of reaching the $4,000 target in April. Bitcoin’s price also reflects similar concerns, as market participants seem skeptical about achieving the $79,000 target by the end of April. Furthermore, heightened attention to infrastructure vulnerabilities and the prominent involvement of the Lazarus Group from North Korea indicate that the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem continues to face persistent risks.
## Article Body
In April 2026, cryptocurrency protocols suffered unprecedented losses totaling $635 million, primarily due to large-scale attacks by North Korea’s Lazarus Group. Major incidents included the exploitation of Solana to attack Drift Protocol, resulting in $285 million in losses, and the theft of $292 million from Kelp DAO via the LayerZero bridge on Ethereum. These 12 attacks accounted for nearly 95% of the month’s total losses. The Lazarus Group’s aggressive assaults on Western blockchain ecosystems reflect its ongoing strategy to disrupt the stability of the crypto market. As the month progressed, continued attacks led to a $13 billion decline in the total value locked (TVL) across DeFi.
Market Analysis
These events have been assessed as having a high impact on Ethereum's market price, significantly reducing the likelihood of Ethereum reaching $4,000 in April. This price movement aligns with concerns regarding the security and confidence in Ethereum's infrastructure. Bitcoin's price has also been moderately affected by the overall negative sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, indicating a reduced probability of it reaching $79,000 before April 30.
## Viewing Guide
The continued frequency and scale of attack incidents may further impact market sentiment and prices for Ethereum and Bitcoin. Observers should closely monitor potential regulatory actions by key institutions, such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as initiatives by prominent figures in the cryptocurrency space aimed at restoring market confidence. Additionally, developments in geopolitical tensions involving North Korea could also influence future market dynamics.