Written by Xiao Bing
Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani told Cointelegraph on September 21 that he expects SOL’s market cap to surpass ETH within this cycle. He also stated that “no one is really using Ethereum today” and described ETH’s $300 billion market cap as questionable in terms of value capture.
This is Samani’s first major public statement since stepping down as a managing partner at Multicoin in February this year. At the time, he wrote in a tweet that was later deleted: “No longer believe in the web3 vision.”
In September, he returned under a new identity, joining the U.S. board of the crypto trading platform Backpack.
Background needed: Multicoin Capital manages $5.9 billion in assets and led Solana’s earliest funding round in 2018; SOL is the cornerstone holding in its portfolio. Samani himself is Solana’s longest-standing and most vocal public supporter—every public statement he makes about SOL is directly tied to his position and interests.
What did Samani say?
Primarily three core judgments:
“Nobody is really using Ethereum today.” He believes Ethereum maintains its leadership primarily due to two factors: the volume of stablecoins on-chain and stablecoin lending collateralized by ETH. Beyond that, real user activity is shifting toward Solana.
“The value capture of ETH is questionable,” he said, noting that ETH is a $300 billion asset with stagnant growth, and he “doesn’t understand why investors would still want to hold it at current valuations,” pointing out that there are many more reasonably priced investment opportunities in the market.
"SOL's market cap will surpass ETH in this cycle." He expects an increasing number of crypto companies to switch their default network from Ethereum to Solana, as Solana is the "most fully-featured network among all," making it simpler to integrate business operations on Solana.
Data validation
Samani's argument is not entirely without basis. But when the data is examined closely, the picture is more complex than he describes.
In terms of fee revenue, Solana has indeed won.
According to DefiLlama data, Solana generated approximately $23 million in on-chain fees over the past 30 days, ranking fourth overall. Ethereum L1 generated only about $12.6 million, ranking sixth.
This data directly supports Samani’s assessment that Ethereum user activity is declining. After Ethereum implemented EIP-4844 in March 2024, data fees paid by L2s to L1 dropped significantly, leading to a corresponding decline in L1’s direct revenue.
User activity, Solana is significantly ahead.
Solana has approximately 29.84 million weekly active addresses, twelve times that of Ethereum's 2.46 million. Weekly DEX trading volume stands at around $11.5 billion, surpassing Ethereum's $7.6 billion. If "usage" is defined by "how many people are actively on-chain," Solana has indeed won.
But in terms of capital locked, Ethereum is still on another level.
Ethereum L1 DeFi TVL is approximately $55.6 billion, and including L2s, it totals between $80 billion and $123 billion. Solana is between $8 billion and $12 billion. The gap is between 7 to 10 times.
Stablecoins are even more dominant. Ethereum supports approximately $163 billion in on-chain stablecoins, while Solana supports around $15.2 billion. In 2025, stablecoin settlement volume on Ethereum exceeded $18.8 trillion.
In the RWA and tokenized assets space, BlackRock’s BUIDL fund ($2.87 billion) is primarily deployed on Ethereum. The SEC’s newly issued “innovation exemption” for tokenized stocks requires the use of public blockchains, and Ethereum and Circle’s Arc are currently the most compliant infrastructure options.
In the developer ecosystem, Ethereum still holds the advantage.
Ethereum has approximately 31,869 active developers, while Solana has around 17,708—Ethereum leads by about 1.8 times. The tooling maturity and developer community size of the Solidity ecosystem remain the largest in the industry.
Staking rewards are more attractive on Solana.
Ethereum staking APY is approximately 3% to 5%. Solana is approximately 4.2% to 9% (including MEV acceleration). For holders seeking yield, SOL offers higher returns.
SOL currently has a market cap of approximately $58 billion, while ETH is around $293 billion. For SOL to surpass ETH, SOL’s market cap would need to expand fivefold, ETH would need to significantly decline, or both would need to occur simultaneously.
Over the past month, ETH rose approximately 30%, while SOL increased by about 34%. The movements were highly synchronized, with SOL showing limited outperformance. Over the past year, ETH declined by approximately 45%, and SOL fell by about 59%, with SOL experiencing a larger drawdown.
Here's a summary in one chart:
Samani’s narrative has a clear logic: where users go, capital will ultimately follow. Solana’s lead in retail activity is a fact, but whether this lead can translate into sustained institutional capital migration is the key variable determining whether a breakthrough will occur.
Note: Kyle Samani is a co-founder of Multicoin Capital and has held a significant SOL position since 2018. The views cited in this article are drawn from his public interviews with Cointelegraph and do not represent the stance or investment advice of Deep潮 TechFlow.