Galaxy Research: Conditional Markets Expand, Impact Markets Near Mainnet

Huo Xing Cai Jing reports that Galaxy Research released a research report on October 15, categorizing decision markets and influence markets under conditional markets. Both types of conditional trades settle only when specific outcomes occur, with decision markets also settling clear and binding results. Unlike prediction markets, conditional markets are not limited to binary, all-or-nothing structures; they trade real assets and their prices rather than synthetic probability contracts, with the byproduct being the impact of events on asset value rather than their probability of occurrence. The firm refers to prediction markets as Event-Driven Finance Version 0, noting that over the past approximately 18 months, numerous experiments have emerged, and new infrastructure is pushing beyond prediction markets. Umia, an ownership-token-style issuance platform compatible with EVM chains, launched in September, expanding decision markets beyond the primarily binary pass/fail markets previously limited to Solana and scaled by MetaDAO, enabling multi-outcome markets that price proposal parameters. A deposit of stablecoin or DAO tokens can simultaneously convert into positions covering each outcome, with only the winning market trades ultimately settling. Currently, 22 DAO treasuries fully governed by decision markets hold a combined $50.5 million, with MetaDAO accounting for 21 of them and 78% of the assets; the stablecoin portion totals $35.8 million, with MetaDAO representing 82%. The initial funding of MetaDAO’s market-governed DAO issuance platform occurred approximately 11 months before this report. Umia extends issuance capability to both Solana and EVM chains, which together account for approximately 92% of TVL by chain type.