Fidelity: Bitcoin Bear Market May Not Be Over; November Could See New Lows

ChainCatcher report: Fidelity Digital Assets' Q4 Crypto Market Outlook notes that at the end of August, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market experienced a significant rally, with major tokens such as BTC and ETH posting their largest monthly gains since the end of 2025. Some investors are monitoring whether November may form a bear market bottom, based on the four-year cycle theory; however, Fidelity cautions that this pattern may not repeat—the bottom could have already occurred in July, or could still form in November or even later. Fidelity observes that historically, bear market endings have typically been preceded by a period of low volatility followed by upward price expansion. At the end of August, BTC rose over 25% in a single week, while ETH and SOL gained 34.1% and 28%, respectively. Recent potential bearish factors—including security incidents involving hardware wallets and the stagnation of the CLARITY Act—have failed to depress prices, potentially reinforcing the view that crypto assets are nearing a bottom. Stablecoin trading volume has reached 2.3 times that of Visa, and the RWA market is projected to grow faster in 2026 than in previous years, with continued on-chain adoption. The CLARITY Act remains under review in the Senate, and last week the SEC proposed its Regulation Crypto Assets initiative. Fidelity advises investors to maintain a long-term perspective.