Key points
- Cardano has rebounded nearly 3% from its recent low.
- ADA faces strong resistance near $0.22
- The Federal Reserve's decision may determine the next breakout attempt.
As traders positioned themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 28, Cardano rebounded approximately 3% from its recent low. However, as of Tuesday, ADA remained near $0.205, well below the $0.22 level needed for a convincing recovery.
ADA rose from approximately $0.2005 on October 26 to a daily close of $0.2066, before giving up some of those gains. This rebound occurred after a significant decline from its early October high near $0.28, raising questions in the market about whether buying pressure can sustain momentum.
Cardano is under price pressure, with $0.22 serving as a key resistance level.
ADA's recent rebound has not reversed its bearish technical structure.
Market data from October 26 shows that the immediate resistance is near $0.2085, followed by $0.2127. The broader weekly resistance is close to $0.223, presenting a greater obstacle for buyers.
This contrasts sharply with Cardano’s rally in early October, when ADA surged approximately 11% to near $0.27 as open interest in futures contracts increased.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez previously warned that a daily close below $0.21 could lead to a further pullback to $0.17.
This warning appeared after the SuperTrend generated a bearish signal and whale activity weakened. However, the $0.17 target remains only a conditional scenario, not a guaranteed price direction.
Earlier Cardano accumulation data shows that major holders control over 25.6 billion ADA, indicating that long-term holding trends may differ from short-term price fluctuations.
The Federal Reserve's decision has put pressure on ADA's recovery.
The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting will conclude on Wednesday, October 28, with the policy statement expected to be released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
Traders will monitor the statement and subsequent remarks to determine whether monetary policy will remain tight ahead of December.
If the outlook becomes more hawkish, it could suppress speculative assets by supporting bond yields and the dollar. Conversely, if the guidance is more dovish, it could reignite demand for cryptocurrencies.
Cardano also faces questions at the ecosystem level.
The community is reviewing a fiscal proposal involving 22 million ADA related to the tokenization of physical copper. The proposal still requires governance approval and will not automatically generate ongoing market demand.
Institutional investment channels also faced setbacks, including Grayscale's withdrawal of its Cardano ETF registration application in August.
These developments provide additional context, but none directly prove the cause of ADA's latest decline.
Cardano Price Prediction: Can ADA Return to $0.22?
For a bullish reversal to occur, Cardano first needs to reclaim the resistance zone between $0.2085 and $0.2127.
If the price can sustainably break above $0.22, levels at $0.223 and $0.24 will come into view. However, buyers still need stronger trading momentum to overcome the broader downtrend.
On the downside, a break below $0.20 could lead to further declines toward approximately $0.193; if selling pressure accelerates, the $0.17 scenario mentioned by Martinez could become more relevant.
Cardano previously saw a strong rebound driven by whale activity, but past buying pressure does not guarantee another recovery. Similarly, earlier price weakness related to governance suggests that ADA may remain highly volatile, even as the ecosystem continues to develop.