I. Macroeconomics and Traditional Financial Markets
1. U.S. stocks show strong divergence: signs of slowing growth intertwined with Middle East uncertainty
Last week, U.S. stock markets showed significant divergence: the S&P 500 dipped slightly by 0.22%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.27% and the Dow Jones increased 0.39%. Macroeconomic data continued to weaken: the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged from 19.6 to 5.7, housing starts dropped sharply to 1.177 million units, and May retail sales rose 0.4% month-over-month, collectively indicating that the high-interest-rate environment is gradually dampening overall demand.
The labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims at 226,000 and the four-week moving average slightly rising to 223,250, providing some support for overall consumption. The structural divergence between consumption resilience and weakening housing and manufacturing sectors complicates the Fed’s policy path, as the pace of economic cooling is insufficient to rapidly drive inflation lower.
2. The Federal Reserve holds rates steady; half of officials anticipate rate hikes this year, signaling a shift in Walsh’s stance.
The Federal Reserve voted 12-0 to maintain the policy rate at 3.75%. Of the 18 officials, nine expect at least one rate hike this year, with six anticipating more than one hike; only one expects a rate cut this year, and one official did not submit an economic projections summary. The Philadelphia Fed's "Price Paid" index rose from 47.9 to 53.2, further reinforcing a tightening stance.
New Chair Wash adopted a communication style distinct from his predecessor, frequently referencing "first principles," "alternative frameworks," and "mandate," and became the only official in this dot plot to withhold future interest rate projections, emphasizing that the Fed’s core mission is price stability. The FOMC statement was almost entirely rewritten and significantly shortened, increasing market uncertainty regarding the Fed’s future communication and policy path.
II. Cryptocurrency Market
1. Market Overview: BTC is weaker than ETH, and market sentiment remains in extreme fear.
Last week, BTC fell 3.7% and traded in a range of $62,000–$65,000; ETH declined 1.2% and held near $1,700. Due to BTC’s noticeably weaker performance compared to ETH, the BTC/ETH ratio dropped 1.6%. The total crypto market cap decreased by 3.1%, while the market cap excluding BTC and ETH fell by 2.3%. The altcoin market excluding the top ten tokens declined by 3.0%, reflecting broad-based selling pressure.
The top 30 cryptocurrencies averaged a 2.5% decline, with only XLM posting a significant gain of 12.2%, driven by Stellar’s roadmap in RWA tokenization, payments, and enterprise settlements. Market sentiment remains in the "extreme fear" zone, with the Fear & Greed Index holding at 20. Additionally, one of the largest MEV sandwich bots on Ethereum
jaredfromsubway.eth suffered a reverse attack, losing approximately $7.5 million, reigniting market concern over on-chain security risks.
2. ETF Funds: BTC experienced a net outflow of $226.8 million; institutions have not resumed consistent buying.
Last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of approximately $226.8 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of about $10 million. Breakdown by trading day: Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of approximately $640.9 million on June 15, a slight net inflow of about $100.6 million on June 16, net outflows of approximately $821.6 million on June 17, and $906.6 million on June 18. U.S. markets were closed on June 19 due to the Juneteenth holiday.
Regarding ETH ETFs, there was still minor net inflow on June 15 and 16, but net outflows resumed from June 17 to 18, resulting in a weekly net outflow close to marginal. Overall, pressure has eased compared to the significant outflow in the prior week, but institutional funds have not yet resumed sustained buying.
3. On-chain data: Total stablecoin supply stabilizes, with structural divergence emerging
According to DeFiLlama data, as of June 22, the total market capitalization of stablecoins was approximately $315.3 billion, increasing by about $287 million over the past 7 days, a rise of roughly 0.09%. USDT held a market share of approximately 59.05%. Over the past 7 days, USDT slightly decreased by about 0.12%, while USDC slightly increased by about 0.06%, indicating overall stability in mainstream settlement funds. USDS declined by approximately 3.47% over the same period, continuing the trend of ecosystem-backed stablecoins contracting more readily in volatile conditions.
USD1 and USDG increased by approximately 9.27% and 6.74%, respectively, reflecting continued expansion of compliance-oriented stablecoins and distribution networks; USDe remained largely flat over the week, indicating a slowdown in the growth of yield-bearing stablecoins but no significant redemptions; BUIDL and USYC maintained modest growth, demonstrating continued resilience in institutional on-chain cash management demand. Overall, the stablecoin market has shifted from last week’s overall contraction to a stabilization in total volume with structural divergence, while capital remains skewed toward high-certainty USD-denominated instruments.
4. Industry Narrative: STRC has traded below par for five consecutive weeks, putting pressure on Strategy’s funding flywheel.
STRC has traded below par for five consecutive weeks, with its price dipping to around $82 before rebounding to approximately $88; however, weekly trading volume still reached $1.6 billion. The stated dividend yield has risen to 11.5%, and the market is discussing whether it may be further increased to 11.75% or 12%. Notably, Strategy, which previously claimed it would "never sell Bitcoin," sold 32 BTC for the first time in late May, raising approximately $2.5 million to fund preferred share distributions.
The strategy currently faces three potential paths: increasing the STRC dividend yield (each 0.5% increase would result in approximately $524.5 million in additional annual dividend costs); selling Bitcoin holdings to pay dividends, which would undermine the core narrative; or issuing new STRC shares below par value, which would structurally increase the long-term dividend burden. Last week, STRC accounted for 76.2% of the total trading volume of Bitcoin treasury senior securities, down from 80% the previous week, with Strive’s SATA being the second most traded asset at 15.8%.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing carries high risk; please thoroughly assess your risk tolerance before trading and strictly implement risk management measures.