Foreign media reported that after posting its strongest August performance since 2017, Bitcoin weakened rapidly at the beginning of September, briefly falling below $77,000. The article suggested that markets are repricing higher interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar, and rising oil prices—factors that are temporarily suppressing cryptocurrency asset performance.
The beginning of September saw a weakening trend.
As of press time, major crypto assets have generally declined. Bitcoin is trading at approximately $76,600, down about 2% on the day; Ethereum fell about 3% to $2,376, and Solana dropped around 4%. The article notes that September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, with an average return of nearly a 3% decline since 2013, and only five out of thirteen years recording positive returns.
However, over the past three years, Bitcoin has ended September with gains. This suggests that the "September weakness" is not an absolute rule, but under the current macroeconomic environment, market sentiment is clearly more cautious.
Oil prices and yields rise
The article attributes this pullback to rising macroeconomic pressures. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized in his Jackson Hole speech that inflation remains elevated, prompting a notable market response, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.784%. The market currently prices in a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 meeting.
Meanwhile, ongoing U.S. strikes against Iranian-related targets have pushed WTI crude oil above $88 per barrel, with intraday gains of approximately 2% to 3%. Amid higher interest rates and elevated oil prices, risk assets are under pressure, and U.S. stock futures have also weakened in tandem.
The article argues that this combination is typically unfavorable for Bitcoin and gold, as tighter financing conditions and a stronger dollar reduce market appetite for high-volatility assets.
ETF cash flows provide support
Despite the price pullback, market sentiment has not broadly weakened. On Tuesday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $237 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs still achieved a net inflow of approximately $8.6 million, continuing their streak of consecutive inflows.
The article also notes that on-chain market activity remains robust. Robinhood Chain has set new records for fee revenue and DEX trading volume, while Pumpfun's terminal trading volume has also reached a new high. Foreign media believe that if ETF inflows, on-chain trading, and crypto-native activities continue to expand, they may still help offset some macroeconomic pressures.
Next, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 16 will be a key focus for the market. The article suggests that this meeting will not only influence short-term interest rate expectations but may also determine the macro trading tone for the cryptocurrency market for the remainder of the year.