The tug-of-war between crypto and AI for institutional dollars is getting lopsided, and not in crypto’s favor.
K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde warned on June 2 that Bitcoin may be headed for a turbulent summer as capital migrates out of digital assets and into high-performing AI-related equities. The catalyst isn’t mysterious: when the hottest trade on the planet is sitting in a different asset class, money follows.
Bitcoin fell to approximately $62,400 in early June while Ether slid to around $1,659. Both are trailing declines that started in the AI stock sector, where stretched valuations triggered a selloff that rippled across risk assets.
The institutional exodus in numbers
The data paints a clear picture. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of 62,794 BTC over a three-week period, marking the second-largest such streak on record.
CME Bitcoin futures open interest, a proxy for how much institutional money is actively positioned in the market, dropped to its lowest level since October 2023. For context, October 2023 was before the spot ETF approval wave that was supposed to permanently change Bitcoin’s demand profile.
“With outside capital reluctant to enter and existing holders trimming exposure, we may be in for a choppy summer,” Lunde said.
K33 had previously identified $60,000 as a potential cycle low for Bitcoin. They’ve now revised that outlook to be more cautious, citing the rising leverage dynamics as a risk factor that could push prices below that floor.
Why AI is winning the capital allocation game
Major tech IPOs are looming on the horizon, with companies like SpaceX and Anthropic potentially coming to public markets. When you’re an allocator choosing between a Bitcoin position that’s been bleeding for weeks and a fresh IPO in the hottest sector since the dot-com era, the decision practically makes itself.
A selloff in AI stocks linked to valuation concerns in early to mid-June created broader market turbulence. Bitcoin, which crypto advocates have long pitched as an uncorrelated asset, got caught in the downdraft anyway.
The pressure isn’t limited to Bitcoin either. XRP and Solana have both felt the squeeze as the broader crypto market absorbs the impact of shifting institutional preferences.
What this means for investors
Bitcoin is currently trading in a range between $62,000 and $67,000. Reduced ETF flows mean the consistent bid that supported prices through much of the post-ETF era is fading. Lower futures open interest means there’s less institutional scaffolding underneath the price.
When open interest in regulated futures (CME) drops while leverage in unregulated perpetual markets rises, it typically signals that sophisticated institutional players are stepping back while more speculative traders are stepping in.
K33’s concern about the $60,000 support level breaking is worth taking seriously. The spot ETF flows that previously acted as a price backstop are running in reverse. The institutional positioning that provided a floor has materially diminished.