Base's USDC Transfer Volume Doesn't Reflect Merchant Adoption, Data Shows

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On-chain data from Glassnode shows USDC on Base features among the top stablecoin transfer routes, but NOWPayments data suggests otherwise in merchant payments. From September 2025 to 2026, USDT on Tron, BNB Chain, and Ethereum handled 86% of NOWPayments’ stablecoin pay-in value. USDC on Base, USDC on Ethereum, and USDT on Tron combined made up 54% of on-chain analysis transfer value. Pay-in value doesn’t equal merchant adoption, as it shows received funds, not retail transaction counts. NOWPayments lacks merchant numbers, location data, and conversion rates. Merchant offers, like a Tron-based USDT fee promotion, may shift payment paths. Talos and Coin Metrics found 69% of Base’s USDC transfers tied to DEX liquidity, 23% to flash loans. A full, comparable assessment of merchant coverage is still needed.

Glassnode's report, published Nov. 10, places USDC on Base among the largest stablecoin routes for on-chain transfer value. However, USDC on Base trails USDT networks for merchant payments through NOWPayments. High transfer volumes do not establish the extent of merchant adoption.

The comparison spans September 2025 to September 2026. The research compares blockchain routes' shares of USDT and USDC transfer value with the stablecoin pay-in value NOWPayments observes. USDT on Tron, BNB Chain and Ethereum represents 86% of NOWPayments' stablecoin pay-in value. The largest on-chain routes, USDC on Base, USDC on Ethereum and USDT on Tron, together represent 54% of on-chain transfer value. USDT on Tron and BNB Chain generates about 75% of NOWPayments' stablecoin pay-in value. However, those routes represent 14% of the on-chain USDT and USDC value covered by the comparison.

Pay-in value measures money received, not the number of retail purchases. Glassnode says the research covers merchants in trading, e-commerce, software-as-a-service and iGaming. NOWPayments' receipts therefore do not constitute a survey of ordinary retail spending. The public summary does not specify merchant counts, geographic coverage, concentration of payment value or how conversions are treated. Those omissions restrict conclusions about global merchant market share and whether a small number of large customers dominate the results.

NOWPayments' setup instructions direct merchants to select accepted customer currencies under Coin settings. Merchant choices could therefore influence routing alongside customer demand. NOWPayments announced a promotion on Oct. 30, 2025, offering new users two months of USDT-on-Tron deposits without network fees. The current promotion page advertises 60 days without network fees and requires new partners to enable custody. The promotion's timing matters when interpreting the payment mix, but the timing does not demonstrate that the promotion caused Tron's share. The contributions of merchant settings and the conditional fee offer remain unmeasured.

An Aug. 11 analysis from Talos and Coin Metrics attributed 69% of raw Base USDC transfer volume to decentralized-exchange liquidity provision. The analysis attributed another 23% to flash loans. The identified categories were characterized as lower-bound estimates. Activity outside those categories could encompass payments, bridging, treasury transfers and other settlement. The historical analysis covers a different period and uses a different denominator from Glassnode's merchant comparison. The analysis cannot explain NOWPayments' particular payment mix or establish lost sales from transfer activity.

Merchants need to assess whether available routes match incoming customer payments at an acceptable total cost. A global assessment of Base would require broader merchant coverage measured on a comparable basis, rather than the experience of one processor.

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