Anthropic Files S-1 for Nasdaq IPO; AI Stocks Surge as SOX Index Rises 3.6%

1. Anthropic has officially filed its S-1 with the SEC, planning to list on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol "ANT" with a potential valuation of $1.5 to $2 trillion, making it one of the largest IPOs in history. The company generated $16.3 billion in revenue in the first half of the year (a 1,258% year-over-year increase), with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the underwriting, targeting a listing during the week of November 16.
2. Chip stocks rose for the second consecutive day, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) surging 3.6% to 11,482.50, posting its largest single-day gain in nearly a month. News of Anthropic’s IPO reignited investor enthusiasm for AI, driving strong gains among leading chipmakers such as NVIDIA and Broadcom, and helping the Nasdaq rise 1.18%.
3. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on October 27-28 is currently underway, with the interest rate decision set to be announced at 2:00 AM Beijing time on October 29. Ninety-four economists expect the interest rate to remain unchanged (currently at 3.75%-4.00%); however, the September CPI rose to 3.7% and elevated energy prices have increased expectations for a rate hike in December. The October dot plot suggests a 25-basis-point rate increase before year-end is highly likely.
4. WTI crude oil fell from a six-month high, dropping below $100 per barrel. Talks between Iran and Oman on a framework agreement to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns over supply disruptions; the IEA previously forecasted a year-over-year decline in global oil demand of 2.5 million barrels per day in Q4.
5. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $110 million on Monday, October 26, reversing the previous week’s net outflow, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for the entire net inflow. Bitcoin held above the $80,000 level, trading at $80,777.

Closing of the three major indices (Eastern Time, October 27, 2026, 16:00)

Data source: Yahoo Finance

Key drivers: Anthropic’s filing of its S-1 form reignited investor enthusiasm for AI, with semiconductor stocks surging and leading the technology sector higher. The Nasdaq rose 1.18%, marking its best single-day gain in nearly a month. The Dow Jones barely edged up 0.03%, weighed down by heavyweight stocks like UnitedHealth, with no clear signs of a shift from tech to defensive styles. The S&P 500 posted its second consecutive day of gains.

Macroeconomics and the Federal Reserve

• Federal Funds Rate: Current target range of 3.75%-4.00% (effective after the 25-basis-point hike on September 17, 2026, the first increase since July 2023).
• FOMC Meeting: The meeting on October 27–28 is currently underway; the interest rate decision will be announced at 2:00 PM ET on October 28 (2:00 AM Beijing Time on October 29). No Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) or dot plot will be released this time.
• Market expectations: The vast majority of 94 economists anticipated no change in October; CME FedWatch previously indicated a roughly 50% probability of a rate hike in October, but weaker-than-expected September non-farm payrolls data shifted market expectations toward a possible 25-basis-point increase in December.
• Inflation: CPI year-over-year rose +3.7% in September (reported on October 14), reaching a recent high, primarily due to surging energy prices. CPI year-over-year was +3.4% in August.

Debt, Forex, and Commodities (10-27)

Data source: Yahoo Finance API

1. AI/Semiconductor Sector—Anthropic’s IPO Ignites Enthusiasm

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose +3.60%, marking its second consecutive day of significant gains.
• Anthropic's S-1 filing disclosed first-half revenue of $16.3 billion (a year-over-year increase of 1,258%), with operating profit turning positive for the first time in a single quarter, and a net revenue retention rate of approximately 900%, validating strong enterprise willingness to pay for AI.
• On the news front, on October 26, tech stocks rose collectively following IPO announcements: NVIDIA (NVDA) +2.4%, Microsoft (MSFT) +1.5%, Micron (MU) +3%, Broadcom (AVGO) +2.3%. (Source: Yahoo Finance, Reuters)
• NVDA closed at $216.00 on October 26, with after-hours trading at $217.94 (+0.90%); MSFT closed at $532.60 on October 26, with after-hours trading at $531.33 (-0.24%).
• Attention: MSFT and GOOGL will release earnings after the market close on October 28, marking the highlight of this week’s tech earnings season.

2. Large-cap tech stocks—earnings season kicks off

• AAPL closed at $343.91 on 10-26 and traded at $347.10 after hours (+0.93%).
• GOOGL closed at $316.80 on October 26, and traded at $320.58 after hours (+1.19%); earnings will be released after hours on October 28.
• META closed at 630.56 on 10-26, with a post-market price of 620.19 (-1.64%).
• This week marks a busy period for major tech earnings reports: MSFT, GOOGL (after market close on 10/28), META, and AMZN will be releasing results, with market focus on AI capital expenditure guidance.

3. Crude Oil and Energy Sector—Declining Oil Prices Ease Inflation Concerns

• WTI fell below the $100 mark, with Brent following suit.
• Drivers: Progress made in negotiations between Iran and Oman on a framework for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz; the IEA monthly report forecasts a year-over-year decline of 2.5 million barrels per day in global oil demand for Q4.
• The energy sector is under pressure, but oil prices remain well above年初 levels (WTI was around $72 at the beginning of the year), and their transmission to the energy component of CPI remains a key focus for the Fed.

4.1 DAT (Digital Asset Treasury) Company Updates

Strategy (MSTR)—Pause Bitcoin Purchases, Focus Shifts to Preferred Share Buybacks

• Holdings: As of October 25, the Strategy holds 848,517 BTC, with a total acquisition cost of approximately $64.02 billion, averaging $75,446 per BTC.
• This week’s update: From October 19 to 25, Strategy did not buy or sell any Bitcoin, nor did it raise funds through its ATM program. This marks another week of continued suspension of Bitcoin purchases by the company.
• Shift in capital allocation: Last week, the company used its U.S. dollar cash reserves to repurchase 2,068,459 shares of STRC series perpetual preferred stock for approximately $205 million, without repurchasing any other classes of securities. The strategic focus has shifted from increasing BTC holdings to maintaining the price of preferred shares and shareholder confidence.
• Previous cryptocurrency purchase pace: In mid-October, small-scale purchases resumed—during the week of October 12, 250 BTC were purchased and $192 million STRC was repurchased; during the week of October 19, approximately $22 million in BTC was purchased and $193 million STRC was repurchased.
• Q3 Earnings Preview: Strategy expects a non-cash fair value gain of approximately $20.9 billion in Q3, primarily reflecting mark-to-market gains from the rise in BTC price. The company will announce its Q3 earnings soon.
• MSCI Index Risk: On October 15, MSCI officially finalized new index rules that may exclude DAT companies, such as Strategy, whose core business is centered on crypto assets from the MSCI indices. Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of Strategy, and CEO Phong Le previously publicly criticized this decision as a "discriminatory" policy.
• MSTR stock price: Closed at $139.82 on the 10-26 daily candle, down 4.24% from the 10-23 close of $146.01. After-hours trading is at $141.40 (+1.13%). BTC's rebound above $80,000 provided support for the after-hours price.

Changes to the Crypto U.S. Stocks Watchlist: This week, no new companies announced a transition to a DAT model or began purchasing BTC/ETH as reserve assets. Smarter Web Company (listed in the UK), which previously raised £10 million for a Bitcoin treasury strategy, is worth monitoring for future developments. (Source: Crypto Times, October 27)

4.2 General Crypto-Linked U.S. Stocks

Mining sector—BTC rebound drives strong after-hours rally

Data source: Yahoo Finance API daily series

The mining sector pulled back with the broader market on October 26, but strongly rebounded after hours on October 27, driven by BTC's recovery to $80,777. RIOT and CIFR both rose nearly or over 10% after hours, demonstrating high sensitivity of mining stocks to BTC price movements.

Exchange and platform

COIN and HOOD declined during regular trading hours on 10-26 but rebounded slightly after hours. Coinbase, as the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, experiences trading volume highly correlated with BTC price.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Fund Flows

• October 26 (Monday): Total net inflow for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs was +$110 million, with only BlackRock’s IBIT recording a net inflow of $110.3 million; all other funds saw no net inflow that day.
• Last week in review: After experiencing a net outflow of approximately $774 million, the inflow of $110 million on October 26 signaled a marginal improvement in fund flows.
• IBIT holdings: BlackRock's IBIT currently holds approximately 814,263 BTC, with a cumulative net inflow of $66.244 billion to date.
• Total size: The total net asset value of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is approximately $102.84 billion, with ETF net assets accounting for about 6.41% of BTC’s total market capitalization, and cumulative net inflows since inception reaching $57.293 billion.
• ETH Spot ETF: On October 26, the net inflow for the Ethereum spot ETF was +$16.1 million; the Solana ETF had a net outflow of -$8.2 million.
• Institutional Moves: Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment reduced its holdings in the Bitcoin ETF (exact size undisclosed), during BTC’s ongoing October pullback.

Latest quote for IBIT/FBTC

Data source: Yahoo Finance API. The after-hours rebound in IBIT and FBTC reflects stronger BTC prices during the Asian session and early European trading hours.

4.3 Regulatory and Accounting Drivers

• MSCI Index Rule Update (October 15): MSCI has officially finalized new index inclusion criteria that may result in the exclusion of companies whose core business is holding crypto assets, such as Strategy. The rule aims to address whether companies whose primary business is holding crypto assets are suitable for inclusion in traditional stock indices. Strategy executives previously criticized the decision as "discriminatory" toward the crypto asset treasury model.
• Impact Assessment: If the Strategy is excluded from the MSCI index, passive funds (such as ETFs) will be forced to sell MSTR, potentially creating short-term selling pressure on the company’s stock price. However, actively managed funds are unaffected. MSCI has not yet implemented the exclusion, and the specific timeline remains pending confirmation.
• The Bitcoin Treasury Permanentization Act: The U.S. Senate Banking Committee previously advanced the American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026 by a vote of 28 to 21, establishing a legal framework for businesses to hold Bitcoin. The final vote timeline and potential amendments to the bill are still pending.

4.4 Crypto-U.S. Stock联动 Signal

• BTC price rebounds → Miner stocks rally after hours: BTC rises from its intraday low of approximately $79,830 to $80,777, with RIOT, CIFR, and MARA all posting gains of over 3% after hours, highlighting the high beta sensitivity of miner stocks to BTC price movements.
• Anthropic IPO → AI Concept Linkage: The resurgence of AI enthusiasm is not only boosting chip stocks but also benefiting assets related to the intersection of AI and blockchain. CoreWeave (an AI computing company, already listed) rose 1.8% on October 26.
• Observation ahead of the Fed decision: Crypto-related U.S. stocks moved in sync with the broader market into a wait-and-see mode, with widespread pullbacks during regular trading hours on October 26, followed by a rebound after hours driven by BTC’s recovery and positive AI-related news.

1. Middle East Situation: Iran’s Nuclear Issue and the Strait of Hormuz

• Latest developments: Iran and Oman are negotiating a "temporary framework" to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The Chief of Staff of the Pakistani Army concluded his visit to Iran, with Iranian media reporting "valuable outcomes." Market expectations for a diplomatic resolution to Iran’s nuclear issue are rising. (Sources: Reuters, Oman News Agency, October 26–27)
• Transmission to U.S. equities: Improved expectations for Strait of Hormuz navigation → Lower risk of oil supply disruptions → WTI falls below $100 → Eased inflation expectations → Supports Fed pause on rate hikes → Boosts equity risk appetite. On October 27, the decline in oil prices and the rise in stock markets reinforced each other positively.
• Transmission to the crypto market: Declining oil prices → Cooling inflation expectations → Marginal reduction in safe-haven demand for BTC as "digital gold," but improved risk appetite supports risk assets like BTC. Currently, BTC’s price movement is primarily driven by ETF fund flows and Fed policy expectations.
• Uncertainty: Iranian officials have denied approving any draft memorandum of understanding, and differences remain on key issues. If negotiations collapse, oil prices could quickly rebound above $110, reigniting inflation expectations.

2. U.S.-China Trade and Tariffs

• Latest update: U.S. corporate investment plans in China have dropped to a historic low (source: AP News). U.S.-China trade tensions continue, but no new major tariff escalations have been implemented.
• Impact on U.S. equities: Trade uncertainty continues to weigh on earnings expectations for multinational corporations, particularly in the technology and manufacturing sectors. However, the market has largely priced in current tariff levels, and the marginal impact is diminishing.

3. Energy and Supply Chain

• The IEA's October monthly report forecasts a year-over-year decline of 2.5 million barrels per day in global oil demand in Q4 2026, with an annual average decline of 2.6 million barrels per day—the first annual decrease since 2009. Diesel demand is expected to drop by 25% due to supply constraints from the Iran conflict and economic deterioration. (Source: IEA)
• High oil prices constrain the pace of interest rate cuts by global central banks—(SunSirs, October 27).

High-priority event

Other的关注

• Economic Data (10/28): U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for October (expected 16.8K vs prior 18.5K); U.S. Monthly Retail Sales for September (expected +0.5% vs prior +0.3%); U.S. New Home Starts for September. (Source: Nasdaq Economic Calendar)
• Crypto US stocks: ServiceNow (NOW), Fortinet (FTNT), T-Mobile (TMUS), Equinix (EQIX), and others will also release earnings after the market close on October 28.
• Strategy (MSTR): Monitor the Q3 earnings release date; the market expects a fair value gain of approximately $20.9 billion from digital assets. Any statements regarding whether to resume Bitcoin purchases will directly impact BTC sentiment.
• Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows: Net inflow/outflow data for ETFs on Tuesday, October 27 will be updated late on Wednesday, October 28 Beijing Time; monitor whether the net inflow trend from Monday continues.
• Geopolitics: Continuously monitor developments in Iran nuclear negotiations. If signs of negotiation breakdown emerge, oil prices may rebound rapidly, impacting Fed policy expectations and global risk appetite.

Risk Points

1. Fed unexpectedly hawkish: If the October meeting raises rates by 25 bps (despite low probability) or the statement signals a strong likelihood of a December hike, it could trigger a sharp correction in both stock and crypto markets. The 10-year yield has fallen from 5.146% to 4.993%, reflecting a dovish market pricing; a reversal would cause significant disruption.
2. Tech earnings miss expectations: MSFT and GOOGL are this earnings season's bellwethers. If AI capital expenditure guidance falls below expectations, it could reverse the AI investment enthusiasm sparked by Anthropic's IPO.
3. The situation in the Middle East remains volatile: Iran denies having approved any draft agreement, and negotiations could collapse at any moment. A rebound in oil prices will reignite inflation expectations, placing dual pressure on Fed policy and stock markets.
4. BTC falls below $80,000: If BTC fails to hold the $80,000 psychological level, it could trigger a cascade of selling in miner stocks and crypto ETFs. Strategy’s mNAV discount will also widen.