Foreign media report that as market discussions about buying undervalued altcoins intensify, analysts believe there may still be time before the next broad altcoin rally. Their assessment is based not on short-term price fluctuations, but on Bitcoin’s historical performance during the late stages of a bear market and early recovery, as well as the typical delayed onset of altcoin movements.
Bitcoin still lacks definitive confirmation.
The article notes that Bitcoin is currently trading in the range of $62,000 to $65,000, with prices near the 200-week moving average at approximately $63,500. This moving average has historically been viewed as a support level during bear markets, but it does not necessarily mean that prices have already reached their bottom.
Analysts say that since October 2025, Bitcoin has continued to form lower swing highs, indicating that the overall weak structure has not yet been broken. Under these conditions, the market has not yet shown a clear signal that the "final bottom has been confirmed."
He believes that instead of rushing to judge the bottom, it's better to wait for stronger trend confirmation. The article notes that if one bets too early, the market could still experience another significant decline.
Altcoins often launch after Bitcoin.
The article compares the current phase to the market movement following the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 in November 2022, while most altcoins reached their lows gradually in December.
More importantly, after hitting a bottom, altcoins did not immediately enter a broad rally. According to the Total3 index, which measures the performance of the cryptocurrency market excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, altcoins largely remained range-bound for nearly the next 10 months, only showing a more significant breakout around October 2023.
This means that even as Bitcoin begins to recover, altcoins may remain in a consolidation phase for an extended period rather than immediately entering a broad rally.
Ethereum and Solana have also shown a similar pattern.
The article states that during the early stages of the previous recovery, altcoins experienced a stronger upward move only after Bitcoin rebounded approximately 70% from its bear market low. In contrast, the overall altcoin market accumulated only about a 12% gain throughout most of the consolidation phase, with rallies accompanied by multiple pullbacks.
This same pattern has appeared with major tokens. Ethereum rose approximately 40% from its December 2022 low to October 2023, but a much larger move followed afterward. Solana exhibited a similar trend—while its price rebounded from around $8 to near $20, this initial rally was modest compared to its subsequent surge past $300.
The article suggests that major altcoins often undergo months of consolidation before truly accelerating.
Volatility risk in August remains a concern.
Analysts also mentioned seasonal factors. Historically, following the patterns of 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin typically forms a significant low around June, rebounds in July, then weakens again in August and September, with some years extending the bottoming process even later.
The article notes that the current market has thus far mirrored this pattern—weakness in June followed by a recovery in July. If this historical trend continues to repeat, Bitcoin may still outperform most altcoins at this stage, with a broad-based altcoin rally potentially requiring several more months to develop.