Key Takeaways
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Macro Environment: The U.S. June nonfarm payroll data indicates a strong labor market, lowering expectations for a rate cut in July. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in July has risen to 95.3%. Trump called the data "good news," while Treasury Secretary Bessent once again pressured the Federal Reserve to cut rates. U.S. Treasury yields rose, but U.S. stocks continued to hit record highs despite diminished rate cut expectations. Wall Street's Fear and Greed Index surged into the "Extreme Greed" zone.
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Crypto Market: Bitcoin surpassed the $110,000 mark again, though market disagreements intensified at that level. The dual nature of the nonfarm data amplified market divergence. Bitcoin decoupled from U.S. stock movements, with gains narrowing. ETH/BTC closed with a green doji star, but Bitcoin’s market dominance remained unchanged. The altcoin market largely followed Bitcoin’s lead, awaiting a clearer breakout direction.
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Today's Outlook: U.S. stock market closed for Independence Day holiday.
Main Asset Changes
| Index | Value | % Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,279.36 | +0.83% |
| NASDAQ | 20,601.10 | +1.02% |
| BTC | 109,593.20 | +0.70% |
| ETH | 2,590.87 | +0.79% |
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 73 (same as 24 hours ago), rated as "Greed".
Project Highlights
Trending Tokens: H, PENGU, ONDO
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H: Humanity (H) listed on Bithumb, short squeeze drove H up sharply; funding rate at -1.68%.
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ONDO: Ondo Finance and Pantera Capital plan to invest $250 million to promote tokenization of real-world assets (RWA).
Macro Economy
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U.S. Treasury Secretary: Warns countries not to delay trade negotiations, tariffs could be raised back to April 2 levels; Trump to decide whether to extend trade talks.
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German Chancellor: Urges swift agreement on tariffs with the U.S.
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U.S. June nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000, beating expectations; unemployment rate at 4.1%, below both previous and expected values.
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Trump: Today’s data is good news, much better than expected.
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U.S. Treasury Secretary: If the Fed doesn’t cut rates soon, the rate cut in September may be even larger.
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The “Big and Beautiful” Act passed in the U.S. House of Representatives, awaiting presidential signature.
Industry Highlights
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U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed a comprehensive crypto tax reform bill, including tax exemption for small transactions: sets a $300 de minimis rule, removes double taxation for miners and stakers, and ensures tax parity between digital and traditional financial assets.
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U.S. House of Representatives declares mid-July as “Crypto Week” to review several crypto-related bills, including CLARITY, anti-CBDC, and GENIUS.
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Bitstamp, Robinhood’s crypto exchange arm, obtained a payment institution license in Singapore.
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U.S. Treasury Secretary: Stablecoin legislation is expected to drive demand for U.S. Treasuries.
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Grayscale remains committed to advancing its crypto ETF plans, despite the SEC suspending its conversion application.
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FTX's latest bankruptcy compensation list revealed; users in 49 countries and regions may be ineligible for reimbursement.
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JupiterDAO's core working group announced its disbandment; 4.5 million JUP tokens will be fully returned to the DAO.
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