Geopolitical Tensions Continue to Drive Volatility, Crypto Assets Remain Range-Bound
Summary
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Macro: Recurrent geopolitical tensions continue to sway market sentiment. Trump’s remarks on Monday briefly eased tensions, while a dovish signal from Fed Chair Powell supported a higher open in U.S. equities. However, tensions persisted during U.S. trading hours: Iran’s parliament approved a bill to impose fees on the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump issued a new round of threats against Iran, pushing major U.S. indices lower by the close. After hours, The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is willing to end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a sharp rebound in U.S. equity futures.
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Crypto Market: Headline-driven geopolitical developments dominated crypto market movements, with Bitcoin closely tracking U.S. equities. BTC traded in a 66k–68k range, showing a pattern of “strength in Asia, weakness in U.S. hours.” Bitcoin dominance held around 58.6%, indicating no significant shift in overall market risk appetite.
Project Updates
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Trending Tokens: ONT, RIVER, FTT
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ONT: +5% in the past 24h, with Korean capital accounting for over 40% of trading volume
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CC: T-RIZE launched a $500M digital bond program on Canton Network. Despite multiple traditional institutions issuing bonds on the network, price reaction has been muted (-2.63% in 24h)
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AMP: +9% in 24h with no clear fundamental catalyst; likely driven by Coinbase’s AI alert system mistakenly mapping stock ticker “AMP” news to the crypto token, triggering copy trading
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LISTA: Lista DAO proposed Tokenomics 2.0, aiming to phase out the veLISTA model; price remains largely unchanged (-0.57% in 24h)
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FTT: FTX will begin redistributing $2.2B to creditors on March 31; FTT +9% in 24h
Major Asset Performance
Data as of March 31, 2026, 00:00 (UTC+0)
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BTC: $66,798.40 (+1.19%)
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ETH: $2,026.24 (+2.11%)
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S&P 500: 6,343.72 (-0.39%)
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NASDAQ: 20,794.64 (-0.73%)
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WTI: $105.00 (+3.79%)
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Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 11 (vs. 8 24h ago), Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
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FTX to redistribute $2.2B to creditors
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edgeX confirms $EDGE token listing on March 31
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OP unlock: 1.55% of circulating supply (~$3.2M)
Macro Highlights
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Powell: Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored; no urgency to respond to energy shocks
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WSJ: Trump told aides he is willing to end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz
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Trump: The U.S. is in serious negotiations with a new and more rational Iranian regime to end military actions; significant progress has been made. If no agreement is reached soon and the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, the U.S. may destroy Iran’s power plants, oil fields, and Kharg Island
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Israeli military: War entering “final stage,” targeting Iran’s economic assets; timeline depends on Trump
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Iran FM: Some vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz after coordination
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Iran parliament approved bill to impose transit fees on the Strait
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White House: Trump aims to reach a deal with Iran before April 6
Crypto Policy
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U.S. senators expected to release final version of the Clarity Act this week
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U.S. Department of Labor proposes allowing Bitcoin investments in 401(k) plans
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U.S. Republicans propose “American Mining Act” to expand mining and strengthen BTC reserves
Industry Highlights
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Strategy did not increase BTC holdings last week
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Bitmine accumulated 71,179 ETH last week; Tom Lee suggests the crypto bear market may end as oil price risks peak
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Nakamoto disclosed selling ~$20M in BTC in March 2026 to build USD reserves
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Crypto treasury company equities packaged into ETFs; T-Strive Digital Credit ETF filed
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Pendle co-founder, alongside Morgan Stanley and BlackRock, introduced asset tokenization to Vietnam’s Deputy PM
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SWIFT: Blockchain-based shared ledger enters MVP stage, with real transactions planned this year
Weekly Outlook
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March 31: FTX creditor redistribution ($2.2B); $EDGE listing; OP unlock (1.55%, ~$3.2M)
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April 1: U.S. ADP employment (March); SUI unlock (1.10%, ~$37.2M); EIGEN unlock (7.54%, ~$6.3M); ZETA unlock (3.37%, ~$2.2M)
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April 2: ENA unlock (0.52%, ~$3.7M)
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April 3: U.S. markets closed; U.S. unemployment rate (March); nonfarm payrolls (March)