Escalating Geopolitical Conflict Shakes Markets, Bitcoin Falls Below $65,000
Summary
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Macro: Geopolitical tensions have escalated again, with Iran continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz and rejecting a ceasefire agreement, while the U.S. is reportedly preparing for potential ground operations. Rising tensions drove oil prices sharply higher, pushing the Dow Jones and NASDAQ 100 into correction territory, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit their lowest levels in nearly eight months, with the NASDAQ posting declines of over 2% for two consecutive days. U.S. equity futures opened lower on Monday, and Asia-Pacific markets broadly sold off. Subsequently, Donald Trump stated that negotiations were progressing well, partially easing market panic and triggering a rebound in equity futures.
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Crypto Market: The crypto market moved in tandem with equities. The early drop in U.S. equity futures briefly pushed Bitcoin below the $65,000 level, before rebounding above $66,000 alongside broader risk assets. Bitcoin has now posted four consecutive days of declines. Market sentiment remains in the “Extreme Fear” zone, with the index hitting the lowest level of the current cycle, reflecting persistently cautious risk appetite.
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Project Updates
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Trending Tokens: SIREN, CHZ
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CHZ: With the World Cup approaching, fan tokens saw renewed momentum over the weekend; CHZ rose 16% over the past 7 days against the broader market trend
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LDO: The Lido community proposed using 10,000 stETH from its treasury to buy back LDO
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WLD: The World Foundation completed a $65 million OTC sale of WLD tokens at an average price of $0.2719
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TRUMP: The TRUMP team is suspected of selling over $16.06 million worth of tokens
Major Asset Performance (as of March 30, 2026, 00:00 UTC)
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BTC: $66,015.10 (-0.57%)
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ETH: $1,984.37 (-0.52%)
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S&P 500: 6,368.85 (-1.67%)
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NASDAQ: 20,948.36 (-2.15%)
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WTI Crude: $101.15 (+7.88%)
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 8 (vs. 9 24 hours ago), Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
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G7 may convene to discuss releasing strategic oil reserves
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BNP Paribas expands its crypto product suite, launching six crypto ETNs (including Bitcoin and Ethereum), open for subscription on March 30
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Upbit to delist Nomina (NOM) on March 30
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ZORA unlock: 3.70% (~$2.5M)
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KMNO unlock: 3.37% (~$4.0M)
Macro Economy
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Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, banning vessels linked to the U.S. and Israel, with several international cargo ships already turning back
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The Pentagon is reportedly planning a “multi-week ground operation,” with the USS Tripoli and 3,500 troops deployed to the Middle East
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Scott Bessent: U.S. insurance plans for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are set to launch soon
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U.S. Secretary of State: Iran’s actions will conclude “in weeks, not months”
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Thailand has reached an agreement with Iran regarding the passage of its oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz
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Trump: Indirect negotiations with Iran are progressing well, and a deal may be reached soon
Crypto Policy
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Emmanuel Macron will speak at Paris Blockchain Week, marking the first time a sitting G7 leader attends an institutional digital asset conference
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BNP Paribas launches six crypto-related ETNs, offering indirect crypto exposure
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Turkey removes its proposed crypto tax clause (previously a 0.3% transaction tax)
Industry Highlights
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Suspicious “precision trades” ahead of Trump’s major announcement prompt calls for investigation
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Intercontinental Exchange completes a $600 million cash investment in Polymarket
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Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF management fee set at 0.14%, lower than all competitors
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Bitcoin may record its second-ever six-month losing streak; after the first, it surged 208%
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Ethereum hosts 61.4% of all tokenized assets
Weekly Outlook
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March 30: Potential G7 meeting on oil reserves; BNP Paribas crypto ETNs launch; Upbit delists NOM; ZORA unlock (3.70%, ~$2.5M); KMNO unlock (3.37%, ~$4.0M)
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March 31: FTX to redistribute $2.2 billion to creditors; edgeX confirms $EDGE token launch; OP unlock (1.55%, ~$3.2M)
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April 1: U.S. ADP employment data; SUI unlock (1.10%, ~$37.2M); EIGEN unlock (7.54%, ~$6.3M); ZETA unlock (3.37%, ~$2.2M)
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April 2: ENA unlock (0.52%, ~$3.7M)
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April 3: U.S. markets closed; U.S. unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls (March)