Geopolitical easing supports risk appetite recovery, BTC continues low-volume consolidation with weak momentum
🔍 Key Insights
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📊 Market Analysis
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On Friday, Amazon’s earnings reinforced expectations that AI investments are beginning to translate into actual returns, offsetting pressure from Apple’s weak guidance and rising Treasury yields. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher amid volatility. Amazon surged 15%, marking its largest single-day gain since 2012, while Apple fell 7.4%, its biggest one-day decline since April 2025. Meanwhile, Trump announced a pause in strikes against Iran, with U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for the 3rd and a potential agreement on the Strait of Hormuz nearing completion, driving a sharp decline in oil prices as geopolitical tensions eased. The crypto market remained under pressure, with BTC trading in a low-volatility consolidation phase. The Coldcard wallet attack continued to develop, with stolen BTC increasing to approximately 1,359.88 BTC (~$88 million), involving 4,585 addresses, though the incident has not had a significant impact on BTC prices. BTC previously rebounded to the $63,800 resistance level before facing selling pressure and pulling back. It is currently trading within the $63,000–$63,800 range, with intraday volatility below $100 and significantly reduced trading volume, indicating a narrow sideways consolidation phase with unclear short-term direction.
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BTC: $63,566.0 (+1.19%); ETH: $1,885.01 (+2.16%); NASDAQ: 25,373.85 (+1.00%); S&P 500: 7,489.72 (+0.70%); Fear & Greed Index: 28 (previously 25) (Data as of: 2026-08-03 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insights
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The Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability exposed security weaknesses in self-custody solutions, with long-term holders becoming the primary affected group. The attack originated from a weak pseudo-random number generator (PRNG) issue introduced after a March 2021 firmware update, creating potential private key exposure risks for certain historical addresses. The incident has affected approximately 4,585 addresses and 1,367 BTC (~$88.6 million), with stolen funds remaining dormant for over three years on average, indicating that victims were mainly long-term BTC holders. While the event has not caused significant short-term BTC price impact, it has increased on-chain migration activity as some users proactively move assets from older wallets, further highlighting market concerns around self-custody security. Going forward, hardware wallet providers need to strengthen historical address risk screening, proactive user notification mechanisms, and security education. Exchanges and wallet service providers can also enhance asset security alerts, risk scanning, and migration tools to reduce losses caused by technical barriers among ordinary users.
Macro Economy
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U.S.-Iran tensions ease: Trump announced that he will hold talks with Iran on Tuesday local time, stating that an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz issue has been reached and that nuclear negotiations are expected to progress. Trump said the decision to cancel further strikes on Iran was made following requests from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Iran. Previously, Trump had ordered a new round of attacks on Iran and advised U.S. citizens in the Middle East to evacuate. Iran confirmed that mediators are assisting in restoring the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, while negotiations with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz have entered the final stage.
Industry Events
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The Coldcard wallet attack has resulted in approximately $88.6 million in losses, affecting more than 4,500 addresses, while Bitcoin small-value transfer activity has surged to the highest level since the FTX collapse.
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Institutional accumulation: Morgan Stanley increased its BTC holdings by approximately 114 BTC; Saylor hinted that Strategy may resume Bitcoin purchases.
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New York State filed a lawsuit against Kalshi, alleging operation of an illegal gambling business.
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The Russian government will ban cryptocurrency mining in Moscow and several other regions starting August 15, with the restrictions lasting until the end of 2032.
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Crypto payment company Kulipa shut down after issuing 120,000 cards, affecting 20 partners including Ready and Solflare.
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Uniswap launched Earn yield features, supporting self-custody lending and yield generation for USDC, USDT, and ETH.
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XRP Ledger is expected to release xrpld 3.3.0 next week, restoring revised Batch and Permission Delegation features and introducing three additional proposals including zero-knowledge proof functionality.
Alpha Project Performance
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PONS: Pons V2 launched with Uniswap V4 integration, optimizing new token issuance mechanisms and enabling direct pairing between new tokens and tokenized stocks. Driven by the upgrade, the token gained over 18% intraday.
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ADA: Cardano completed its hard fork and announced a new development roadmap focused on improving transaction efficiency and supporting more on-chain applications. Expectations for the upgrade boosted trading volume nearly twofold, with the token rising over 8% intraday.
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STONKBROKER: Stonk Launcher released new issuance rules requiring projects to use STONKBROKER for liquidity configuration when launching. Increased token utility expectations drove the token up approximately 20% intraday.
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ENA: A large purchase and staking activity involving 60 million ENA tokens, combined with Arthur Hayes increasing holdings by 3.05 million tokens, supported market sentiment, pushing the token up over 10% intraday.
This Week’s Outlook
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August 4: SpaceX releases earnings report; MMT unlocks 6.14% of circulating supply, worth approximately $4.21 million.
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August 5: Circle and AMD release earnings reports; ENA unlocks 1.97% of circulating supply, worth approximately $15.36 million.
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August 6: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1; SanDisk and Western Digital release earnings reports; HYPE unlocks 0.19% of circulating supply, worth approximately $22.66 million.
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August 7: U.S. July nonfarm payroll data release; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin, along with 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem, deliver speeches.
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August 8: STABLE unlocks 3.56% of circulating supply, worth approximately $30.57 million.
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August 9: AVNT unlocks 8.78% of circulating supply, worth approximately $2.44 million; GMT unlocks 1.88% of circulating supply, worth approximately $2.43 million.
