
Rising Oil Prices and Long-End Yield Pressure as BTC Rebounds Above 64K
🔍 Core Insights
-
📊 Market Overview
-
U.S.-Iran negotiations remain stalled, while restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has renewed concerns over energy supply. Brent crude rose to around $91 per barrel, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.73% and the 30-year yield reached 5.31%, the highest level in more than two decades. Higher oil prices and elevated long-end yields continued to weigh on risk appetite. All three major U.S. equity indices declined, with energy stocks outperforming while technology shares were mixed. In crypto, BTC recovered above $64,000 and ETH returned to around $1,900, showing relative resilience versus equities. BTC remains within its recent consolidation range, with $64,000 becoming a key short-term battleground and resistance around $65,000 from previous trapped supply and profit-taking. Unless long-end yields and oil prices ease materially or trading volume expands sustainably, the market is likely to remain in a range-bound recovery phase in the near term.
-
BTC: $64,531.9 (+2.59%); ETH: $1,913.54 (+2.00%); NASDAQ: 26,644.91 (-0.32%); S&P 500: 7,745.06 (-0.52%); Fear & Greed Index: 41 (previous: 31). (Data as of 2026-08-18 00:00 UTC)
-
🧠 Market Insight
-
Institutional allocation is increasingly tilting toward ETH, while corporate BTC buying has slowed temporarily. U.S. spot ETH ETFs recorded approximately $2.85 billion in net inflows last week, a record high and well above the roughly $548 million recorded by spot BTC ETFs over the same period. Meanwhile, Strategy made no additional BTC purchases and maintained holdings of 840,447 BTC, while directing capital toward replenishing its U.S. dollar reserve and repurchasing preferred shares, indicating a slowdown in sustained corporate treasury demand for BTC. If ETH ETF inflows remain strong and ETH/BTC continues to strengthen, capital could increasingly rotate from BTC into ETH and the broader Ethereum ecosystem.
-
Beyond the shift in capital flows, Ethereum’s upgrade roadmap is also evolving from primarily relying on L2s for scaling toward simultaneously strengthening L1 performance, censorship resistance and native account experience. The Ethereum Foundation released the early Glamsterdam testnet yesterday, while Ethlabs proposed priorities for Hegotá, including faster block production, stronger censorship resistance and native account abstraction. If testing progresses smoothly and account abstraction is ultimately included in the upgrade, it could lower barriers to onchain transactions and payments while making it more viable for applications to operate directly on L1, providing additional support for ETH’s long-term value accrual at the application layer. In the near term, the key variables are testnet stability and whether the proposed upgrades can be delivered on schedule, which will determine whether these roadmap changes translate into meaningful growth in onchain usage.
Macro Economy
-
U.S.-Iran tensions: The 60-day window under the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has expired. Trump said he has no intention of extending the agreement and again emphasized U.S. control over the Strait of Hormuz, reiterating his claim that the strait is U.S. territory. Iran, meanwhile, decided to shift its policy from defensive to fully offensive, rejected Trump’s claim that secret communication channels exist with the Revolutionary Guard, and seized a UAE-owned oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.
-
Long-end U.S. Treasuries continued to sell off, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.728% and the 30-year yield to 5.3146%, the latter reaching its highest level in more than two decades. Higher oil prices combined with rising long-end yields continued to pressure risk-asset valuations.
-
Japan’s 5-year government bond yield rose 2 basis points to a record high of 2.18%.
Industry Events
-
The U.S. Treasury Department opened a public consultation on implementation rules for stablecoins under the GENIUS Act.
-
Hyperliquid backed the U.S. SEC’s proposal to eliminate the order protection rule and called for best-execution guidance tailored to onchain markets.
-
A macOS screen-sharing vulnerability was exploited by hackers to gain root access and deploy XMR mining malware.
-
Pump.fun App launched zero-fee trading, with cross-chain fees set at 0.1%.
-
The Ethereum Foundation released Platåberget, an early Glamsterdam testnet. Glamsterdam is scheduled for the second half of 2026 and will focus on improving L1 execution capacity and block-building efficiency.
-
Total stablecoin market capitalization fell to approximately $308.3 billion in July, marking three consecutive months of net outflows.
-
Bitmine and Strive continued accumulating crypto assets: Bitmine purchased another $19 million plus 9,926 ETH, while Strive added 79 BTC last week.
Alpha Project Performance
-
牛来: The recent release of the film 牛来 has fueled attention around a namesake Meme token in the crypto community. The combination of a film-related cultural catalyst and the token’s “bull market” connotation has driven secondary social-media circulation, attracting short-term capital and increasing trading activity.
-
COMP: Compound completed a leadership reshuffle, advanced its institutional pivot and launched a $52 million V4 program, with plans to expand into RWA, institutional credit and traditional-finance partnerships. Expectations around the strategic shift pushed COMP up nearly 10% over 24 hours.
-
ANSEM: Ansem launched a token issuance platform for the ANSEM community, introducing the Z500 Index and an ANSEM token burn mechanism. The ecosystem catalyst drove trading volume up more than 4x, while the token gained more than 20% on the day.
-
VVV: Venice recently disclosed that its user base had surpassed 4 million and annualized revenue exceeded $100 million, while continuing token buybacks and burns. Combined with VVV being featured among popular Base AI tokens, trading volume increased by roughly 2.6x and the token rose about 12% intraday.
Weekly Outlook
-
August 19: A 50% U.S. tariff on certain Canadian products takes effect; U.S. weekly ADP employment change for the week ended August 1.
-
August 20: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended August 15; ZRO unlock equivalent to 4.4% of circulating supply, worth approximately $19.9 million; KAITO unlock equivalent to 7.63% of circulating supply, worth approximately $11.5 million.
-
August 21: U.S. August PMI; Japan CPI; AKE unlock equivalent to 9.35% of circulating supply, worth approximately $21.27 million; GWEI unlock equivalent to 13.6% of circulating supply, worth approximately $5.18 million.
-
August 22: SENT unlock equivalent to 4.4% of circulating supply, worth approximately $4.16 million.
-
August 23: SOON unlock equivalent to 5.96% of circulating supply, worth approximately $3.93 million.




