Bitcoin Bulls Eye Potential July Rebound Amid Historical Trends: 20%+ Gains in Sight?
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2024-07-02 11:21

Since April, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $59,000 and $74,000. The cryptocurrency faced significant selling pressure and negative sentiment among retail traders. Historical trends suggest that July could be a bullish month, offering hope for Bitcoin bulls.


Quick Take

  • Bitcoin's price has ranged between $59,000 and $74,000 since April.

  • July historically shows a bullish trend for Bitcoin with an average return of over 11%.

  • Bitcoin ETFs saw $130 million in inflows on July 1, the highest since early June.

  • Analysts predict a possible strong rebound in July despite headwinds.

Bitcoin's price is subject to seasonal cycles. Profit-taking around tax season in April and May often leads to price drawdowns. Conversely, December usually sees increased demand, known as the "Santa Claus" rally. These predictable patterns can influence cryptocurrency prices, leading to notable changes.


Read more: Bitcoin Price Rebounds Past $63,000: Will It Hit $70k in July?


Bitcoin’s Historical Performance in July

Bitcoin’s historical performance in July | Source: CoinGlass 


Data shows that Bitcoin has performed well in July over the past decade. On average, Bitcoin has gained more than 11% in July, with seven out of ten years showing positive returns. For instance, from 2019 to 2022, Bitcoin's July returns were 27%, 20%, and 24%, respectively.


The start of July saw U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs record nearly $130 million in inflows, the highest since early June. This followed over $900 million in outflows in the previous month. Such inflows indicate renewed investor interest and confidence.


Analysts Forecast Bounce in BTC Price 

Singapore-based QCP Capital noted in a recent broadcast that Bitcoin tends to bounce back strongly in July, especially after a negative June. Their options desk saw flows positioning for an upside move, potentially in anticipation of the ETH spot ETF launch.


Historical trends of Bitcoin’s gains in July | Source: X


Crypto fund Matrixport reported that Bitcoin's July returns from 2019 to 2022 were around 27%, 20%, and 24%, respectively. This historical trend suggests a bullish July.


According to trending polls on Polymarket, 78% users believe that Bitcoin price will hold above $61,000 by July 5. In another poll, 36% users expect BTC price to touch $70,000 in July. 


Potential Challenges

Despite the optimistic outlook, some analysts predict that July could face challenges. The German government's sizeable Bitcoin sale and the upcoming Mt. Gox repayments may exert pressure on Bitcoin's price. The repayments could see around $8.5 billion in Bitcoin paid back to creditors, starting in the first week of July.


Read more: Will $10 Billion in Bitcoin Repayments from Mt. Gox Weaken BTC Price?


Market Resilience: Bitcoin Gains 4.5% 

BTC/USDT price | Source: KuCoin 


Despite these challenges, Bitcoin showed resilience. From June 28 to July 1, Bitcoin rose by 4.5%, breaking the $63,000 resistance. The bearish trend was reversed by three key factors:


  1. Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.

  2. Entry of new major investors.

  3. Renewed investor confidence due to traditional market instability.

Mainstream Market’s Impact on Bitcoin Price Trends 

Billionaire Michael Dell, founder and CEO of Dell Technologies, sparked excitement with a suggestive message about a possible Bitcoin investment. Dell's company holds $5.83 billion in cash and equivalents, potentially hinting at a significant Bitcoin investment.


Additionally, Sony's Tokyo-based subsidiary, Amber Japan, rebranded as S.BLOX to focus on cryptocurrency trading. The firm emphasized user-friendliness and expanded features, indicating a strategic move into the crypto space.


Some investors are turning to Bitcoin due to concerns over inflated tech stock valuations. For example, Nvidia's forward sales estimate jumped from 12 times to 21 times in two months. This shift reflects a broader trend where investors seek alternative assets, including Bitcoin.



Historical trends and seasonal cycles suggest that Bitcoin may see a strong rebound in July. Despite potential challenges, the renewed investor confidence and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs indicate a bullish outlook. As always, market dynamics are subject to change, but the signs point towards a positive performance for Bitcoin in the coming weeks.


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