December 2025 Bitcoin Price Prediction: Key Drivers and Potential Challenges for a Breakthrough Beyond $110,000

1.1 Predictive Metrics and the Implied Breakthrough

1.2 Three Key Factors Supporting the Long-Term Forecast

1. The Halving Effect's Lagging Impact: While the Bitcoin Halving event typically occurs in 2024, its most potent price impact usually materializes within the subsequent 12-18 months, covering the end of 2025 and early 2026. The rigid constriction of supply serves as the foundational impetus for price appreciation.
2. Sustained Institutional Capital Inflow: The introduction of spot ETFs has significantly streamlined the process for traditional financial institutions and retail investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin. In 2025, an increasing number of pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and large asset management firms are expected to incorporate Bitcoin into their portfolios, bringing potentially hundreds of billions in incremental capital.
3. Cyclical Release of Global Liquidity: As global central banks potentially shift towards more dovish monetary policies in late 2024 or early 2025, global liquidity is projected to become more abundant. As a representative high-beta risk asset, Bitcoin is poised to benefit substantially from this surplus liquidity, accelerating its upward trend.

2.1 Analysis of the Crypto Market's Correlation with US Equities

2.2 Bitcoin's Short-Term Retracement and the Battle for Support

"Bitcoin failed to sustain the previous day’s rebound, retracting to find support near $100k."

• From a Technical Perspective: $100,000 functions as a powerful, large-integer support level. Finding support here suggests strong underlying demand and buying interest, which successfully limits the scope of any deeper short-term fall.
• From a Market Sentiment Perspective: The failure of the prior rebound is often attributed to insufficient long-side pressure to overcome overhead selling, or potential profit-taking by large whales and institutional investors at key resistance zones.
• Underlying Factor: A potential temporary cooling or slowdown in institutional spot ETF inflows could also be contributing to the lack of upward momentum, as some major entities may be consolidating positions after an accumulation phase.

2.3 The "Anomalous Activity" in Altcoins

1. "Speculation in Desperation": Some high-risk capital may be rotating away from macro-sensitive assets like BTC/ETH and into smaller-cap altcoins, seeking outsized returns from short-term plays. This pattern often emerges when broader market sentiment is bearish but liquidity has not entirely dried up, with volatility—rather than a stable uptrend—becoming the primary target for capital.
2. "Narrative Rotation": Capital may be focusing on specific, emerging sectoral narratives, such as new AI-Crypto integration projects, DeFi innovations, or Layer 2 scaling solutions. This represents a structural shift in market hot spots, demonstrating the ongoing innovation and internal vitality within the crypto ecosystem.

• Long-Term Strategy (Focused on the $110,548.05 Average Target for Dec 2025): Investors should maintain long-term optimism, anchored by the halving cycle and the trend of institutionalization. Short-term pullbacks, particularly as the price approaches crucial support levels like $100,000, should be viewed as opportunities to accumulate or strengthen long-term positions.
• Short-Term Tactics (Addressing Current Macro Correlation and Retracement): Investors must heighten risk awareness, hedging against the transmission effects of US stock and global monetary policies on the crypto market. Strict control of leverage is essential to avoid forced liquidations during macro-driven market "crashes."