KuCoin Ventures Weekly Report: Geopolitical Turmoil Surges, Bitcoin's Resilience Stands Out; Positive ETF Inflows, Stablecoin Sector Booms, and Frequent Highlights in the Primary Market
2025/06/16 09:49:14
KuCoin Ventures Weekly Report: Geopolitical Turmoil Surges, Bitcoin's Resilience Stands Out; Positive ETF Inflows, Stablecoin Sector Booms, and Frequent Highlights in the Primary Market.
1. Weekly Market Highlights
A Market Rollercoaster, Spreading Risk-off Sentiment, and Rethinking Bitcoin's Resilience
Last week, global market sentiment was volatile. Early in the week, news of China and the US restarting trade talks in London briefly boosted market risk appetite; subsequently, the closely watched US CPI data came in unexpectedly lower than anticipated, significantly increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and overall sentiment turned positive for a time. However, on Friday, Israel's airstrikes on Iran shattered the market's brief calm. According to reports, in the days following the conflict's outbreak, high-ranking Iranian military officials were killed in Israeli military operations. As of the time of this report, the conflict between the two sides is ongoing. Meanwhile, US President Trump commented on the situation, stating that the conflict could "end very easily" and that "peace will come quickly."
Following the attacks, global market risk-off sentiment rapidly intensified, and investors entered a state of high alert. US stock futures fell in response, while safe-haven assets such as oil, gold, the US dollar, and US Treasuries rose simultaneously. Among them, gold prices were particularly striking, at one point breaking through $3,450 per ounce, approaching all-time highs, once again demonstrating its globally recognized safe-haven asset status. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market exhibited typical risk-asset characteristics, generally recording declines.
Notably, Bitcoin demonstrated strong resilience during this downturn. Its price not only found solid support around $103,000 but also showed signs of a rebound after stabilizing. Historical data shows that similar Middle East conflict escalation events (such as Iran's drone attack on Israel in April 2024) have previously caused Bitcoin to fall by more than 10% in a short period. While the current market reaction is relatively mild, subsequent trends will still highly depend on the intensity of Iran's response and the progress of international mediation efforts.
Data further indicates that, as of now, the amount of Bitcoin held by Long-Term Holders (LTH) has reached 14.68 million BTC, a record high, accounting for 73% of the total circulating supply. This proportion has been continuously climbing since March 10th of this year, reflecting strong market confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value. As Bitcoin's holding structure has shifted from being dominated by retail investors and speculators in the early days to a landscape where institutional investors now play a significant role, its market volatility has decreased.
Despite market turmoil, current Bitcoin volatility is at historically low levels
Meanwhile, an increasing number of investors are beginning to re-evaluate Bitcoin using traditional asset pricing models. This has allowed Bitcoin to demonstrate more significant resilience compared to other crypto assets amidst sharp market fluctuations. Therefore, current Bitcoin is no longer merely seen as a highly volatile pure-risk asset; it is more akin to a novel hedging tool that incorporates the "digital gold" narrative, possesses high liquidity sensitivity, and is borderless, without credit endorsement, and globally recognized.
Looking ahead, although US-China trade tensions have recently eased somewhat, uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy remains a key focus for the market. Furthermore, rising oil prices triggered by geopolitical conflicts could exacerbate inflationary pressures, thereby impacting the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts and the overall liquidity of financial markets subsequently. Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market is expected to continue facing a period of volatility and adjustment.
2. Weekly Selected Market Signals
Middle East Tensions Re-escalate, Geopolitical Crisis Triggers Risk Asset Plunge
Last week, heightened tensions between Israel and Iran led to a sharp downturn in global risk assets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted over 700 points at one stage, and BTC briefly breached the $103,000 support level. Concerns over potential crude oil supply disruptions fueled a surge in international oil prices, marking the largest single-day gain since March 2022. Safe-haven demand propelled gold to a new record closing high. However, inflationary expectations driven by the oil price surge temporarily dampened buying interest in safe-haven assets, while U.S. Treasury yields exhibited a "dip-then-rise" pattern. As the conflict extended towards Iran's core energy infrastructure, global markets are bracing for a potential full-scale confrontation that could reshape the Middle Eastern energy landscape.
On Sunday, Israel reportedly conducted its first strike against Iran's largest natural gas field. This action not only marked the first direct attack on Iranian energy infrastructure but also represented the first strike on an Iranian mainland refinery since the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. The primary market concern is that continued escalation could impact the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy transport. With the conflict extending to crucial energy facilities and reports of potential U.S. intervention, the situation in the Middle East has escalated significantly, triggering a renewed wave of global risk aversion. In early Asian trading on Monday this week, crude oil futures gapped higher before paring gains, U.S. stock futures opened broadly lower then recovered modestly, and spot gold experienced a short-term pullback.
Data Source: TradingView
This week, Bitcoin ETFs reversed a two-week trend of net outflows, attracting a total of $1.07 billion in net inflows for the week. Concurrently, Ethereum ETFs maintained their positive trajectory for a fifth consecutive week, recording net inflows of $528.12 million, a new high for 2025. Notably, fund flows into both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs had already demonstrated a recovery trend prior to the recent macroeconomic risk disturbances.
Data Source: SosoValue
Key Macro Events to Watch This Week:
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June 17: Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate Decision and Policy Rate Target (Upper Bound) announcement.
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June 19: U.S. Federal Reserve (FOMC) Interest Rate Decision and release of the Summary of Economic Projections, followed by a Monetary Policy Press Conference with Fed Chair Powell.
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June 19: Bank of England (BOE) Policy Rate announcement.
Binance Alpha Points System Sees Intensified Competition; Trading Volume Plummets
Data Source: https://dune.com/kucoinventures/cexonchain
Consequently, after reaching an all-time high of $2.038 billion on June 8th, trading volume on Binance Alpha 2.0 has experienced a continuous decline for six consecutive days. On June 14th, trading volume dropped to just $988 million, a decrease of over 50% from its peak and approximately 12.6% lower than the previous day. Concurrently, trading volume on BNB Chain via Binance Wallet also experienced a sharp decline. Paradoxically, the number of Binance Wallet Traders has continued to increase during this period, remaining stubbornly high and intensifying competition.
The escalating points threshold for Alpha airdrops/TGE, coupled with increasingly complex participation and points rules (such as a two-phase airdrop distribution and the inclusion of PancakeSwap LP assets in balance calculations for points), has markedly dampened the enthusiasm of ordinary retail users. The focus of participation appears to be shifting towards "zero-loss arbitrage" strategies, predominantly orchestrated by sophisticated operations or "studios."
Primary Market Financing Observations:
Data Source: https://cryptorank.io/funding-analytics
Last week, total primary market funding for the week amounted to $209.84 million, a notable decrease from previous periods. Key investment events of note include:
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Turnkey, a crypto wallet infrastructure company (whose services are utilized by firms such as Moonshot and Axiom), completed a $30 million Series B funding round led by Bain Capital, with participation from Sequoia Capital, Galaxy, and Wintermute.
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Web2 payments giant Stripe is set to acquire Privy, a cryptocurrency wallet provider (previously backed by Paradigm and Sequoia Capital). Transaction terms have not yet been disclosed. This follows Stripe's earlier acquisition of Bridge Stablecoin (a payment processing infrastructure provider), further strengthening its Web2-to-Web3 bridging capabilities.
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a16z Crypto led a $33 million seed round for Yupp and participated in a $7 million strategic round for OpenTrade.
Yupp Secures $33 Million Seed Round to Explore Value Capture from "Preference Data" in AI Model Training
a16z Crypto announced it led a $33 million seed funding round for Yupp, an AI blockchain platform. Yupp focuses on multi-model comparison and user preference feedback mechanisms. It allows users to simultaneously query over 500 mainstream AI models and generate responses side-by-side. Users select the optimal result, forming a "preference data package" for subsequent model training and evaluation. The project ensures transparency of the feedback process through on-chain records and incorporates an incentive mechanism where users are rewarded for their feedback, while model developers gain access to verifiable training data.
Overall, Yupp follows a typical Bay Area tech startup trajectory. The project itself does not present a distinct breakthrough but rather represents a Web3 re-architecting of traditional model alignment and preference data requirements. Founder Jeremy Bernick previously served as VP of Engineering at Coinbase, and the team largely comprises individuals from major tech companies like Google and Microsoft, possessing strong product engineering capabilities. The platform has not yet announced its specific token mechanism, and its future growth potential hinges on actual user engagement and the development of its developer ecosystem.
OpenTrade Secures $7 Million Funding to Expand Stablecoin Yield Services in Emerging Markets
UK fintech company OpenTrade this week completed a $7 million strategic funding round, co-led by Notion Capital and Mercury Fund, with participation from a16z crypto, AlbionVC, CMCC Global, and others. The project focuses on providing stablecoin yield infrastructure for countries experiencing high inflation (essentially structured DeFi products based on Real World Assets - RWA). Users can deposit USD or EUR stablecoins through partner platforms, earning annualized yields of up to 9%, significantly higher than the sub-0.4% returns typically offered by traditional bank accounts in countries like Argentina and Colombia.
Data Source: DeFiLlama
OpenTrade currently manages over $42 million in assets with cumulative trading volume approaching $200 million. Its B2B2C model, by directly embedding yield products into partner platforms, lowers user barriers to entry and enhances capital flow efficiency. The company aims for its "Yield-as-a-Service" API model to become a key solution for stablecoin-based financial inclusion, particularly demonstrating growth potential in high-inflation markets such as Argentina.
3. Project Spotlight
Stablecoin Development Enthusiasm Remains High, Multiple Prominent Web2 Companies Explore Stablecoin Business, Plasma Pre-Deposits Reach $1 Billion
Stablecoins have become a key entry point for TradFi into the crypto space, second only to Bitcoin. The market capitalization of crypto stablecoins has surpassed $255 billion. Beyond the well-known USDT and USDC, USD1, launched by the Trump family’s WLFI project, ranks as the fifth-largest stablecoin, while PayPal’s PYUSD is the seventh-largest. Traditional finance and Web2 companies are increasingly penetrating the crypto stablecoin sector. Web2 giants such as Bank of America, U.S. Bank, Ant Group, Walmart, and Amazon are exploring and advancing stablecoin initiatives in jurisdictions with relatively clear regulatory frameworks, including the United States, Singapore, and Hong Kong. It is foreseeable that more traditional industry giants will enter the crypto stablecoin and RWA sectors in the future.
In developing nations, stablecoins play a critical role in combating inflation, facilitating payments, and serving as a store of value. In 2024, stablecoin transaction volume reached $32.8 trillion, more than double Visa’s transaction volume, involving over 1 billion transfers and nearly 200 million addresses. USDT usage alone rivals that of PayPal.
Amid the booming stablecoin landscape and Circle’s high-profile IPO, Plasma (XPL), a stablecoin payment protocol led by Tether’s sister company Bitfinex and backed by Peter Thiel, became the focus of the week with its token sale on Echo. Plasma raised $1 billion across two rounds for token issuance (sale plan: 10% of tokens sold at a $500 million FDV), with both rounds fully subscribed in a short time. Upon the launch of Plasma’s mainnet Beta, XPL tokens will be distributed, and users can withdraw USDT not used in the sale. A total of 3,083 addresses participated in the $1 billion deposit, averaging $324.6k per address. Notably, 157 addresses invested between $1 million and $10 million, and 22 addresses exceeded $10 million, with the largest single deposit reaching $50 million. The Plasma deposit frenzy also sparked an Ethereum Gas fee war, with one whale paying over $100k in Gas fees to secure a $10 million deposit before the round closed.
Data Source: https://dune.com/seoul/plasma
Plasma is a high-performance Layer 1 blockchain designed specifically for stablecoins (USDT), targeting low-cost cross-border and instant payment scenarios while addressing pain points in existing settlement networks, such as Ethereum’s high fees and Tron’s trust issues. Plasma’s core technical advantages include zero-fee USDT transfers via a delayed priority ordering mechanism, EVM compatibility as a Bitcoin sidechain with partial inheritance of Bitcoin’s security, and support for DeFi ecosystems. Furthermore, with regulatory clarity emerging from frameworks like Europe’s MiCA and the U.S. GENIUS Act, Plasma ensures compliance through features like auditable on-chain reserve proofs and smart contract-embedded blacklist/whitelist mechanisms—capabilities not found in existing public blockchains. In operations, Plasma complements Tether, with Tether managing USDT issuance and custody, while Plasma handles circulation, settlement, transfers, and payments. Together, they enable an on-chain and off-chain stablecoin network with open APIs for merchant integration.
About KuCoin Ventures
KuCoin Ventures, is the leading investment arm of KuCoin Exchange, which is a top 5 crypto exchange globally. Aiming to invest in the most disruptive crypto and blockchain projects of the Web 3.0 era, KuCoin Ventures supports crypto and Web 3.0 builders both financially and strategically with deep insights and global resources.
As a community-friendly and research-driven investor, KuCoin Ventures works closely with portfolio projects throughout the entire life cycle, with a focus on Web3.0 infrastructures, AI, Consumer App, DeFi and PayFi.
Disclaimer: This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. KuCoin Ventures shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information. Investments in digital assets can be risky.