Predictions

How to Understand Prediction Market Prices and Probabilities

Last updated: 10/08/2026 05:59:00
Prices in the corresponding Polymarket market are formed through participants' buy and sell orders. KuCoin provides the Predictions interface, technical integration, and related account functions, but does not independently determine market prices, liquidity, order execution, or outcomes.
A displayed price is a market signal reflecting current trading activity and participant expectations. It is not KuCoin's prediction, a guaranteed probability, an official conclusion, or investment advice.
 

What a displayed price means

Each corresponding Polymarket market has a specific question and a set of possible outcomes. Predictions displays the current price information provided for those outcomes.
In general, stronger demand for an outcome may move its price higher, while weaker demand may move it lower. Available liquidity in the corresponding Polymarket market can affect both the displayed price and the actual execution price.
Always review the full market question and resolution rules. Similar-looking markets may have different deadlines, outcome definitions, or result sources.

 

How to interpret implied probability

Where Predictions displays an implied probability, it represents the market's current assessment of how likely an outcome is. It may change at any time and may differ from polls, forecasts, expert opinions, or your own assessment.
A higher implied probability does not mean that an outcome is certain. An outcome favored by the market can still lose when the market is resolved. In a normally resolved binary market, winning shares settle at $1 each and losing shares at $0. Before settlement, the displayed Yes and No prices may not add up to exactly $1 because they may reflect separate executable prices, order-book spreads, available liquidity, and changing market conditions. Applicable fees are shown separately and do not determine the market price.

 

Why the final execution may differ from the displayed price

Predictions currently supports market orders only. The price displayed before confirmation is an estimate, not a guaranteed execution price. Prices and available liquidity in the corresponding Polymarket market may change before execution.
Market orders are subject to applicable price-protection limits. Depending on the liquidity available within those limits, an order may be fully filled, partially filled, or unfilled.
Check the completed order record for the final execution price, filled amount, and number of shares received. For details, see How Prediction Market Orders Are Executed.

Price, result, and settlement are different

  • Market price is the current market information displayed for an outcome.
  • Market result is the outcome determined under the market's published resolution rules.
  • Settlement applies the finalized result to eligible positions.
 
The result is not determined by whichever outcome had the highest price before trading closed. Settlement follows the applicable market rules.
Before placing an order, check:
  • the complete market question;
  • the exact outcome selected;
  • the trading deadline;
  • the resolution criteria and result source shown for the market;
  • the latest displayed price or implied probability;
  • the estimated execution details; and
  • any applicable fees and trading limits.
 
Market prices can change, and the outcome you select may not be the final resolved outcome. Review the live market page before placing each order.
 
DISCLAIMER: This information is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice, an offer, solicitation, or guarantee. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Users should conduct their own research, carefully consider the relevant risks, and make decisions based on their own circumstances. We accept no responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on or use of this information. For more information, please refer to the Polymarket Integration User Agreement and Risk Disclosure.