1️⃣ “If USTC Successfully Repeggs: Price and Market Implications” 2️⃣ “Potential Impacts of a Repeg on the Terra-Luna:Native Price” What Could Happen Under Various Scenarios? 1️⃣ IF USTC FULLY REPEGS (Permanent and Functional Peg to $1) Assumption: $USTC is sustainably pegged to $1 through a robust mechanism, and this peg is maintained. 🔹 USTC Price Impact Price: → $1 (fixed) Volatility: → Very low → Speculation largely ends Arbitrage: → Arbitrage mechanism functions effectively → Large price deviations do not occur 🔹 Market Perception Initial Impact: → Shock and intense attention High trading volume Perception of “return” Medium Term: → Transition to use as a stablecoin Most speculators exit the market More institutional perspective emerges Long Term: → #USTC becomes an “instrument,” not an “investment” Expected returns approach zero 🔹 Liquidity and Adoption Increased integration with DEXs and CEXs Payment, transfers, and DeFi usage become mainstream Terra Classic ecosystem regains functionality 🔹 Risks (Post-Repeg) If large capital outflows occur, the peg faces stress testing Global stablecoin regulations could create pressure If confidence erodes, the peg could collapse rapidly 2️⃣ POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF A REPEG ON LUNC PRICE #LUNC is the asset at the center of the USTC repeg process, carrying both risk and reward. 🔹 Short-Term Impact (News and Expectation Phase) Price: → Sharp upward movements possible → Speculative buying increases Volatility: → Extremely high → Frequent sharp corrections Volume: → Explosive surge 📌 This phase is driven more by “excitement” than “pricing.” 🔹 During Repeg (Implementation Phase) Outcomes depend on the model: 🔸 LUNC Burn-Dominated Model Supply decreases Upward pressure on price Long-term positive 🔸 LUNC Minting / Unlock Model Supply increases Price faces significant downward pressure Panic selling may occur 📌 At this stage, the specific model determines LUNC’s fate. 🔹 Post-Repeg (If Peg Is Maintained) 🟢 Positive Scenario USTC operates stably LUNC becomes the “value carrier” of the ecosystem Lower volatility, more sustainable price structure Long-term investor interest grows 🔴 Negative Scenario Peg weakens or breaks again LUNC suffers loss of confidence Severe and prolonged price declines possible 🔹 Psychological Impact LUNC’s perception shifts toward “rescue story” A successful repeg could lift LUNC out of the speculative memecoin category A failed repeg could permanently damage the ecosystem 🎯 Key Takeaway For USTC, full repeg: → Technically possible, practically very difficult For LUNC, repeg: → High reward / high risk Therefore, the market generally prices: USTC for “stability,” LUNC for “speculation.”