The market is in such a poor state, with countless projects grinding to a halt. But @predictdotfun is growing instead. Today, I spoke with the head of the prediction market at another exchange, and we discussed Predict’s market conditions—over the past month, platform activity has clearly intensified, with many projects actively expanding into prediction markets. Today, Changxin Technology went public, and those following the trades on Predict directly pocketed a 17% arbitrage profit; investors who won allotments in the A-share offering made over 20,000 RMB, while those who didn’t still profited on Predict. From box office revenues to the Nobel Peace Prize, NBA championships, and whether OpenAI will go public—Predict has markets for everything. It might just be one of the few vibrant markets left right now.
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