solana ETF applications have decision deadlines in 60-90 days and the market is pricing this as a simple yes/no binary. the actual risk is a neutered approval. ETH ETFs launched without staking, created a 6-7% annual yield penalty vs holding directly, and bled $130m YTD. SOL staking yields 7%+. if the SEC approves SOL ETFs with staking disabled, the same holders who can custody and stake directly will never touch the wrapper. you get an approval headline followed by disappointing AUM that looks exactly like ethereum's ETF disaster. the trade isn't approval vs rejection. it's whether the approval is good enough to attract capital that has better options holding the asset natively.