🧵Why I Think $SOL Will Struggle to Break Out in the Short & Mid Term 👇 I used to hold $SOL, but right now I’m not including it in my portfolio. I still think this won’t be $SOL’s year. I’ll go deeper into why. 1/ Decline of memecoin dominance Most of the volume on Solana right now comes from memecoins (launch → hype → dump). Real projects and actual builders are getting buried, while capital keeps rotating into speculation instead of long term plays → weakening the chain’s long-term appeal. based on recent onchain reports (Mar-Apr 2026), memecoins’ share of total DEX volume on Solana has dropped sharply to around ~20% (from a peak of ~70%). the number of active traders on Solana DEXs also dropped hard, from 4.4M (2025) to around ~400,000. If it were me, I’d only play memecoins on $SOL and wouldn’t want to hold anything else. The flow would be: buy memecoins → rotate back to $SOL → cash out $SOL to USD. 2/ DeFi on @Solana is losing traction after @DriftProtocol incident, ~$285M was gone, which led to a sharp drop in Solana DeFi TVL. Capital outflows accelerated, a lot of SOL moved onto exchanges → direct sell pressure. Total DeFi TVL: ~$5.552B (only +1.03% in 24h but down significantly from the recent peak >$9B). I see this as “bad news hitting at the same time,” shaking short term confidence. Even though stablecoin supply is still relatively high, post hack outflows + low DeFi volume are clearly making the ecosystem less attractive. 3/ Onchain activity & revenue are dropping hard Look at a few key metrics and it becomes clear: – DEX volume: at the lowest level since late 2024 (~$920M–$1.59B daily depending on source, ~$11.49B weekly). – Network fees and app revenues are dropping noticeably. – Daily Active Users/Addresses: still ~4-4.6M, but actual active traders are only a few hundred thousand → thin liquidity, easier to manipulate, and often “stuck” price action. All onchain signals point to weakening real activity, not enough to support a strong breakout. 4/ The “quantum resistance” problem of $SOL Solana is one of the ecosystems most exposed to this. It currently uses Ed25519 (elliptic curve cryptography) for signatures and account keys. A strong enough quantum computer (especially if Shor’s algorithm becomes practical) could derive private keys from public keys very quickly → creating a “harvest now, decrypt later” risk. Solana Foundation has been working with Project Eleven to test post-quantum cryptography on testnet, but early results weren’t great: – Post-quantum signatures are ~40x larger than current Ed25519. – Network speed dropped ~90% in testing. → This is the classic tradeoff: Security vs Speed, which directly impacts Solana’s core strength. It also weakens investor confidence in $SOL in the short & mid term. ---------------------------- Based on all of this, I’m still sticking with my view: $SOL will struggle to break out strongly in the short term (1–3 months) and mid term (3-12 months). The market feels like consolidation/sideways with continuous sell pressure, weak catalysts, and declining on-chain strength. This isn’t FUD, just my personal view from an investment perspective. Could be right, could be wrong. I’m open to any counter arguments.