My 2026 thesis on prediction markets & primitives Prediction markets are shaping up to be the next real meta after memecoins + AI. Not as a niche. As financial infrastructure. Core take: - 2026 = mainstream maturation year - $100B+ annual volume - PMs embedded into wallets, news, and apps - Primitives become as foundational as AMMs were in 2020 This is the shift from crypto toy → real rails. Why now? Distribution + legitimacy arrive together. New entrants matter more than new protocols. @coinbase integrating markets @kalshi going mainstream @RobinhoodApp gaining ground That combo flips PMs from crypto-native curiosity into something normal people touch without thinking. Liquidity follows distribution. Legitimacy follows incumbents. Key pillar 1: Mass adoption via TradFi × crypto bridges @coinbase x @kalshi Odds everywhere: CNN, CNBC, dashboards, feeds. Political markets get the headlines, but they won’t dominate. Non-political markets (sports, econ, culture) = 70%+ of volume. World Cup 2026 alone could push $10B+. Key pillar 2: Primitives go fully composable This is where it gets interesting. Conditional / distribution markets: @butterygg / @TideMarkets Nested outcomes + scalar markets = real scenario trading. Attention / narrative / hyperstition: @TrendleFi / @convergemarkets / @hyperstiti0ns Markets on narratives themselves. Trade ideas that become self-fulfilling. Leverage / yield / insurance / hedging: @intodotspace (10x) @gondorfi (borrowing) @robinmarkets (yield) @getliquid (insurance) PMs stop being “bets” and become DeFi-native instruments. Key pillar 3: AI agents eat a lot of the edge Small category for now. No clear winner. But it’s obvious where this goes: agents arbitraging, hedging, reacting faster than humans. @sire_agent is one to watch. Key pillar 4: Futarchy & governance revival Voting without consequences doesn’t work. Markets with skin in the game might. @MetaDAOProject-style governance replaces opinion with capital-weighted belief. Key pillar 5: Verticalized PMs win Broad platforms onboard users. Focused platforms keep them. Sports, gaming, esports, culture, live events, social: @Forkast @BRKTgg @trepa_io @fireplacegg Better UI/UX, tighter communities, clearer identity. Key pillar 6: Where this actually happens (chains) @ethereum - anchors liquidity + institutions @solana + @monad - speed, leverage, consumer PMs @BNBCHAIN - retail-heavy @SuiNetwork / @SeiNetwork - specialized infra quietly forming @base - early, not leading yet Risks (real ones): Insiders Regulation Both can break trust if mishandled. Upside: If done right, prediction markets embed everywhere. They stop being framed as “gambling” and start looking like InfoFi 2.0 + DeFi 2.0. Bottom line: 2026 isn’t when PMs launch. It’s when they stop being optional. Prediction markets don’t just grow, they eat the world quietly. What part of this stack do you think captures the most value? Follow @degensing for more.