🌙 DrHash Research Evening Report | Weekend Liquidation Washes Out Bulls, Asia’s Risk-On Monday Picks Up the Pieces, Tuesday’s CPI Will Be the Verdict 🌍 Macro Environment | U.S. Markets Closed for Weekend · Asia’s Risk-On Monday Absorbs Weekend Liquidation (U.S. markets closed for the weekend; below is a recap of Friday, Nov 6 closing + live crypto data + Asia Monday open, U.S. markets reopen tonight) 🟢 Friday (11/6): Oversold rebound, chips led gains: SOX +4.21% (9,390) (AMD +11% / NVDA +2.78%), Nasdaq +1.09% (24,579), S&P +0.31% (7,377), Russell 2000 +0.89% 🔴 Dow -0.46% (51,286) closed lower, VIX at 25.64 (-9.0%) — back above 25 = broad market weakness, fear仍未消退 🟢 Asia Monday open turns warmer: KOSPI +2.0%, Nikkei ~+3%, TSMC +6% = Sino-U.S. trade de-escalation boosts risk appetite 🧩 One-liner: A weekend night waterfall wiped out crypto longs; Asia’s risk-on Monday absorbed the shock. In a directional vacuum — tonight’s U.S. market reopening and Tuesday’s (11/10) CPI will be the verdict. 🛢️ Global Geopolitics & Macro (Weekend–Monday Highlights) 🟢 Sino-U.S. Trade De-escalation Confirmed (Biggest Catalyst): China will suspend its additional 24% tariffs on U.S. goods starting Nov 10 at 13:01 Beijing time for two months (retaining 10%), implementing consensus from the Washington summit between heads of state = renewed tariff outlook reassessment, direct catalyst for Asia’s risk-on rally ⚔️ Middle East Escalation vs Strategic Cooling Coexist: Landmark in Riyadh’s KAFD financial district hit; Aramco building damaged; oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz struck a mine and caught fire; Houthi launched four military strikes against Saudi Arabia; yet Trump stated in a CNN interview five times: “It is extremely unlikely we return to war with Iran if negotiations make progress” = oil price gap risk and premium cooling coexist 🔴 Jensen Huang “Spygate”: NVIDIA’s independent board investigation confirmed Huang was targeted by Chinese intelligence (Huang admitted to an extramarital affair with a former Singapore executive); board concluded no evidence of data leaks / CEO remains in place, but U.S. Congress across parties will probe NVIDIA-China ties = AI regulatory narrative resurges; NVIDIA perpetual futures fell ~3% on Monday 🔴 Rate Hike Undercurrent Remains: After strong NFP, CME implies ~80% probability of December rate hike; Fed, Bank of England (already at 4.00%), and ECB all maintain hawkish stance 🟡 Four Macro Signals = Hawkish Bias: 🔴 10Y Yield 4.86% / 🟡 Gold $4,070 / 🟡 WTI $90.48 (including war premium) / 🟡 JPY 158.52 📊 Crypto Multi-Timeframe Technicals 💰 Current Price: BTC $75,250 (-0.80%/24h) / ETH $2,147 (-4.10% weakest) / SOL $87.91 (-1.53%) 🩸 Weekend Waterfall: At 05:45 Beijing time (13:45 PT) on Nov 9, a single 15m liquidation cascade — BTC dropped from 75.6K to 73.5K, ETH plunged below 2,060, SOL dropped below 85 (pre-dawn thin liquidity, long deleveraging); followed by exhaustion of forced selling + Asia’s risk-on rally → V-shaped recovery, reclaimed most losses 🔴 1D All Bearish: BTC RSI 36 / ETH RSI 35 (weakest bearish alignment) / SOL RSI 30.4 (most oversold), all three coins trading below Bollinger Lower Band with bearish sequence 🟡 Short-Term Micro-Rebound: BTC 15m RSI 50 / MACD turned positive; ETH 1H RSI 26.7 deeply oversold (highest rebound elasticity) ⚠️ Volume: The 4H candle during the waterfall showed elevated volume (volume ratio 1.3–1.45); all other timeframes saw extremely low volume = no buying support after the panic sell-off; waiting for capital to return 🧩 Essence: The weekend waterfall = another knee-bend from longs deleveraging, not driven by new macro news; the 1D trend remains bearish; short-term recovery fueled by Asia’s risk-on sentiment 📉 Derivatives 🩸 24h Liquidations Surge (including the waterfall): BTC $272.5M (longs liquidated $249.8M ≫ shorts $22.7M), ETH $448.5M (longs $411.8M ≫ shorts $36.7M), SOL $37.1M (longs $34.9M) = concentrated long liquidation, one-sided deleveraging 🟡 Last 4h: Liquidations have converged and shifted to short-dominant: BTC 4h shorts liquidated $12.3M > longs $5.4M; ETH shorts $17.1M > longs $7.2M = post-waterfall rebound triggering short squeeze 🟢 Funding Rates Diverge: BTC +0.0036% (mildly positive), SOL -0.0016% (slightly negative), ETH -0.0054% turned negative = ETH shorts becoming crowded, rebound fuel accumulating 🔵 Open Interest: Total BTC OI ~$51B 🧩 Interpretation: Longs just swept out = floating supply cleared; ETH funding turning negative is a rebound signal, but BTC/SOL funding still not deeply negative = insufficient fuel — don’t mistake the V-recovery for a trend reversal 🎯 BTC Core Indicators 🔴 U.S. Spot Premium Discount: -0.127% / -$95 (daily basis), U.S. spot price $74,756 = U.S. institutional selling pressure persists but has slightly eased from -0.150% earlier today😨 Fear & Greed Index 30 (Fear Zone, slight rebound from recent levels: 51 → 27 → 26 → 30) = Emotions slowly recovering from lows 🎲 DVOL 46.1 (Implied volatility neutral; not fully synchronized with stock market VIX) 🎯 Max Pain: 11/9 $76,000, 11/10 $76,000, 11/11 $75,500, 11/12 $75,000 = Strong magnetic pull around current price of $75–76K; no directional bias in options market 🧭 Comprehensive Assessment 🔴 Bearish: ~80% probability of rate hike + synchronized central bank hawkishness; AI deleveraging unresolved + Jensen Huang spy scandal triggering congressional scrutiny (AI regulatory narrative resurging); Middle East tensions escalating; longs just wiped out in a violent liquidation cascade 🟢 Buffers: U.S.-China trade de-escalation implemented + Asian risk-on sentiment Monday (KOSPI +2%); BTC deeply oversold followed by V-shaped recovery; ETH funding rate turned negative = crowded shorts; post-cascade 4H shift to short爆 = early signs of short squeeze 🧩 Core Insight: A thin order book at Sunday midnight triggered a single waterfall liquidation—the final bow of long deleveraging—caught by Asian risk-on sentiment. This is emotional repair, not macro reversal; underlying tone remains hawkish 👉 Timing Strategy: $73.5K is a panic spike low—do not blindly short (high risk of V-rebound); only consider clean short entries if rebound stalls at $79.5–80.5K (previous support turned resistance / daily MA20) without volume; breakdown below $73.5K opens path to $70K. True directional trigger = U.S. equity market reopening tonight + U.S. October CPI on Tuesday (11/10) 💡 Weekly Trading Plan (Level-Based) 🔴 BTC Bearish Bias: Current price $75.25K—do not chase (near lower range boundary, oversold and prone to rebound); if price rallies to $79,500–80,500 with no volume expansion, consider half-position short / stop-loss: daily close above $84,000 / targets: $73,200 → $70,000 🟢 BTC Counter-Rally Play: Only lightly enter longs if price holds $73.5–75K with declining volume + funding rate turns negative / stop-loss: 4H close below $73.5K / target: $79–80K (small counter-trend position) 🔴 ETH: Funding rate already negative at -0.0054% + 1H RSI at 26.7 = deeply oversold, highest rebound potential—avoid shorting at lows; better short opportunity emerges on rebound to $2,350–2,400 📉 AI/Storage Chains (Directional, Not Level-Based): Dual pressure from Jensen Huang spy scandal + Netlist’s Section 337 investigation on DRAM/NAND—but avoid shorting at waterfall bottom (V-rebound risk); wait for rebound into resistance zones to re-short: SanDisk 945–990 → 1065–1105 / Micron 765–800 → 845–885 / SK Hynix 936–955 → 999–1035 🟡 Gold: Rate hike ongoing + Middle East tensions; $4,070 rebound stalled at $4,100–4,120; bullish case requires de-escalation in conflict ⚖️ Discipline: Synchronized central bank hawkishness = risk-off base tone unchanged; after waterfall, avoid blind shorting and do not mistake V-recovery for reversal; avoid full positions before Tuesday’s CPI ⚠️ Risk Events (This Week) 🔥 Tuesday 11/10 — U.S. October CPI (Beijing 21:30, ★★★★★) = Most critical event this week; expectations: core MoM +0.2% (prior +0.3%), core YoY 2.8%, overall YoY 3.9%; hotter than expected reinforces December hike probability (currently ~80%); cooler data opens room for rebound; PPI on 11/13 follows 🟢 Monday 11/9 — China October CPI (Beijing 09:30) + PPI; U.S.-China tariff easing officially takes effect 11/10 at 13:01 🔴 Jensen Huang Spy Scandal: Bipartisan U.S. congressional probe into NVDA-China links; if concrete evidence emerges linking Megaspeed to export control violations, AI regulatory narrative becomes major tailwind risk 🔴 Storage Sector New Variable: U.S. Netlist filed Section 337 investigation against DRAM/NAND devices and downstream products (filed 11/6) ⚔️ Middle East Escalation Window: Weekend attack on Saudi financial district + oil tanker mine strike in Strait of Hormuz; if conflict escalates, oil surges, safe-havens spike, markets reprice as “higher for longer” (gold and BTC both fall); monitor oil gap tonight 🔥 U.S. Equities Reopen Tonight: Will the Semiconductor Index sustain Friday’s rebound? How will NVIDIA’s spy scandal be priced? — DrHash Research