Recap of the last 24 hours: Yesterday morning, I ended with a question—will the BOSS hold or give way? The market answered the same day: swallowed, +$2,457 in a single one-hour candle. First close above $80,000 in twelve days—and it died just $11 below the last BOSS. 🪙 CRYPTO BTC is trading at $81,080, up 4.4% in 24 hours. The BOSS was the 50-week MA at $79,667. On Monday, it killed the pump just $67 away. At 3 PM Friday, a single candle pierced it without slowing. Friday’s movie: → 3 PM: THE candle—from $78,043 to $80,500—swallowing the BOSS en route → 9 PM: The evening drives the nail home—$81,400 → 2 AM: Close comes in—$80,884 → 3 AM: Night high—$81,741 First close above $80,000 since September 6. And the detail I highlight: the last BOSS, the 365-day MA, stood at $80,895 on Friday. The close died at $80,884—$11 below. The market delivered its verdict to the dollar, right at the final line of the chart. This morning, we’re trading above that line. Today’s judge? It’s $80,800. Fear & Greed: 71, up from 56 yesterday—a 15-point jump overnight. The market has swung firmly into greed. ETH at $2,627, up 5.6%. Close at $2,612—it followed suit. And the stuck record finally stopped: long positioning has dropped back to 69%, the first day under 70% after ten straight days above. The crowd is lightening up during the rally: healthier than the opposite. XRP at $1.42, up 7.5%: The Senate’s first victim has fully recovered. -7.3% on Tuesday, +7.5% today—punishment repaid. SOL at $112, up 5.9%: The $100 level broken on Thursday hasn’t even been retested. And ZEC at $1,564: New all-time high of $1,588 overnight—the second in two days. 📡 DESK DATA 24-hour liquidations: $602M, of which $520M were shorts—86%. Shorts burned have risen for the third consecutive day: 59%, 78%, 86%. On BTC alone: $258M in shorts liquidated versus only $10M in longs. Open Interest at $56.4B, up from $51.8B yesterday—a +$4.6B surge in 24 hours. Friday morning, leverage fueled the move; by Friday night, it had recharged violently. BTC crowd turned short: 48% long this morning vs. 59% yesterday. They’re selling the top while price surges $4,000—so long as they persist, they feed the fire. Funding rates remain moderate. A $4,000 rally without funding euphoria—the squeeze hasn’t yet manufactured its bubble. This morning, spot is taking profits: 1.8x selling pressure with cash-out gains below the high. Normal after such a candle—watch if it persists. 📊 SPOT BTC ETFs Friday: +$433M—the largest inflow since September 4. Fidelity did the heavy lifting this time: FBTC +$310.7M, IBIT +$108.4M. Thursday’s +$159.5M inflow was confirmed without revision: two consecutive inflows totaling +$592M. The post-vote outflow of -$746M is nearly erased in two sessions. On ETH: +$143.7M—the first inflow after three outflows—with ETHA leading. Institutional investors didn’t buy back after the Senate or Fed moves—they bought the breakout, in size. 📉 TODAY’S TOPIC: THE OIL BARREL HAS GIVEN BACK THE WAR PREMIUM Brent below $100: $99.30, down 5.3% on Friday’s session. WTI at $96. On September 10, the barrel broke above $100—and I wrote that it had cracked. On Friday, it cracked the other way. What changed in 48 hours: → Riyadh announced half its pipeline capacity will be repaired within days → Exports have resumed via the Strait of Hormuz—the alternate route → Beijing, summoned by Riyadh, relayed a message to Tehran: rein in the Houthis My take: The war premium built over two weeks and deflated in a single session. Bitcoin’s surge Friday at 3 PM while oil plunged isn’t coincidence—it’s risk-on returning everywhere at once. S&P +1%, even gold climbed again to $4,425. On Friday, everyone bought something—except oil.Except for oil. 🌍 MACRO → The U.S. 10-year yield has risen precisely to 5.00%: the bond market, however, hasn’t joined the celebration. → Polymarket has settled yesterday’s coin flip: October’s rally is priced at 56%, while a pause is at 44%. Another price increase alongside Bitcoin at $81,000: fear of rates no longer drives prices lower. 👀 WHAT I’M WATCHING The last boss. The MM365 is at $80,800 this morning, and we’re trading just above it. Since I’ve drawn this line, no daily close has ended above it: Friday’s close died at $11 below. A close above it tonight would leave no single line on my chart before the 82,300$ wick. And Sunday night’s weekly close. Opened at $76,842, we’re now trading $4,200 above it, with the panic wick at $74,968 below. The candle for the week of the three verdicts is shaping up exactly as I described yesterday: the one we’re boxing in.
AlanShare

Source:Show original
Disclaimer: The information on this page may have been obtained from third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of KuCoin. This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. KuCoin shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information.
Investments in digital assets can be risky. Please carefully evaluate the risks of a product and your risk tolerance based on your own financial circumstances. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Risk Disclosure.



