♾️ BlockInfinity Market Evening Report · 9/4 (Friday · NFP Day) ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 Macroeconomics 🔴 August NFP +162K, far exceeding expectations of +56K (nearly 3x), unemployment rate at 4.1%—labor market unexpectedly strong, hawkish shock. 🔴 Citigroup has pushed its forecast for the next Fed rate cut from October 2026 to June 2027; market probability of a September rate hike has risen above 60%. 🟡 DXY rose then retraced all NFP gains, currently at 99.12; U.S. equities opened mixed (Dow -0.38%, S&P -0.13%, Nasdaq +0.02%). 🟢 Divergence remains: multiple institutions state next week’s CPI will be the true deciding factor; NFP has not fully locked in a rate hike. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌐 Global Developments 🔴 Middle East: U.S. approved $5.75B in arms sales to Saudi Arabia and $188M to Oman; prior to this, Israel threatened strikes on Lebanon and blockades of the Strait of Hormuz. 🟡 Ukraine-Russia: Ukraine attacked two major Russian refineries, causing shutdowns; U.S. envoy reportedly set to visit Kyiv on 9/6 with a proposal. 🟢 Gold at $4,438 (-0.91%) / Silver at $66.27 (-0.85%), both declining; WTI at $91.17. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📈 Technical Analysis (based on closed candles) ₿ BTC $79,518 (24h -1.7%) · Daily: Price above all MAs (bullish structure intact), but MACD bearish crossover, histogram turned negative at -101, RSI 65 → cooling = weakening bullish momentum · 4H: Bullish alignment but declining volume, RSI 53 neutral · 1H: Broke below MA20/50, MACD bearish histogram expanding, RSI 44 = short-term pullback nearing oversold Ξ ETH $2,451 (-2.4%, weakest) Daily MACD bearish, RSI 63; 1H bearish RSI 44 ◎ SOL $101.8 (-2.0%) Daily MACD bearish crossover, RSI 62 ━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚙️ Derivatives 🟡 Funding rates (8h): all moderate with no extremes: BTC ±0.0016%, ETH +0.0024%~+0.0088%, SOL -0.0054% (slight short congestion) 🟢 DVOL at 37.8 (low volatility) | Spot premium +$13.4 / +0.017% (slightly positive) | F&G ~73 Greed (lagging indicator) ━━━━━━━━━━━━ ₿ BTC Core 🟡 Overnight short squeeze +5% has been fully reversed by NFP; price has retreated to $79.5K. Daily structure remains broadly bullish, but catalyst turned hawkish + momentum has declined for three consecutive periods = topping consolidation; both chasing longs and naked shorts are risky. MaxPain magnet zone at $77–78K. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧭 Overall Assessment 🟡 Neutral to slightly bearish (tactical). Daily chart has not reversed, but hawkish NFP + bearish momentum divergence + weakening momentum suggest short-term bias toward selling rallies into divergence. Strong support and magnet zone at $77–77.5K; consider partial profit-taking upon reaching this level. Avoid heavy directional positions ahead of next week’s CPI. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 Today’s Trading Recommendations 🔴 BTC Bearish: Sell rallies at $80,300–80,800, stop-loss at $81,400 (above 1H ATR), targets $77,300 → $76,200; do not chase naked shorts below $79K. Longs only if price retests and stabilizes at $77–77.5K. Position size: 30–40%. 🔴 ETH weakest: Follow BTC bearish bias; sell rallies at $2,500–2,520, stop-loss at $2,560, targets $2,390 → $2,355. 🔴 SOL: Daily MACD bearish crossover; sell rallies near $104–105 resistance, stop-loss at $106, target $97.3. 🟡 Discipline: Avoid full positions during event week (CPI next week); widen stop-loss levels; avoid naked shorts near oversold conditions on the 1H chart. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ Upcoming Risk Events · 🔴🔴 Next week’s CPI = pivotal determinant of whether the Fed hikes in September · 🔴 9/17 FOMC (dot plot) · 🟡 AVGO and other tech earnings | Middle East (Israeli strikes / Strait of Hormuz) | Ukraine-Russia (U.S. envoy visit to Ukraine on 9/6) —— BlockInfinity Research · Powered By Wesley