#FED: The bond market has already priced in the hike—the Fed has not. 🚨 The current target range is 3.50–3.75%, with a midpoint of 3.625%. 🟠 US 3M: 3.91% ➡️ +28.5 basis points above the midpoint 🟢 US 2Y: 4.34% ➡️ +71.5 basis points above the midpoint Even when smoothed, the signal is clear: ➡️ 3M spread over 20-day average: +25 bps ➡️ 2Y spread over 20-day average: +59 bps ➡️ Both have remained above the midpoint for all of the last 20 trading days. Probabilities for September 16: 🔵 CME FedWatch: 70.2% hike / 29.8% hold / ~0% cut 🟣 TSC House Model: 76.6% hike / 23.3% hold / <1% cut Both models point in the same direction; our independent House Model is slightly more hawkish. The real edge lies in history: Since 2000, the 20-day average of the US 3M has been above the target midpoint prior to 37 of 40 rate hikes and below it prior to all 34 rate cuts. After a confirmed hike signal, the Fed historically responded within a median of 41 days. But 2026 is extraordinary: The smoothed US 3M has been above the midpoint since January 7—236 days and counting. No prior hike signal lasted longer than 104 days. A hike on September 16 would extend this to 252 days. The 2Y reflects the interest rate regime; the 3M typically provides timing. Currently, both confirm a hike—but the Fed is lagging behind this signal more than ever in this dataset. The hike scenario would weaken significantly only if the 3M average falls below 3.625% while the 2Y simultaneously breaks below 3.875%. Let’s go 💪 Knowledge is wealth. Recognize trends. Act with foresight. TSC | Trend Serra Capital