The first step of jobs week printed this morning and settled nothing. ISM manufacturing came in at 54.6, an eighth straight month of expansion, a touch under expectations and off July's four year high. Job openings held at 7.3 million with hiring quiet and layoffs low, the same frozen labor market as last month, down to the decimal. Steady activity, careful employers, nothing here that forces the Fed's hand in either direction. The repricing is coming from everywhere else. September hike odds have hardened from roughly 48 percent on Sunday to about two in three today, on the keynote's afterglow and an oil shock out of the Strait of Hormuz feeding the inflation math, and the 10 year touched 4.788 this morning, its highest level since January 2025. The 2 year sits at 4.387, six basis points under the 4.45 line set Sunday, and that line grades on Friday's settle, nothing before it. All of it lands on the divergence from Sunday's read, an index near record highs with barely half its stocks above their own 50 day average. Friday at 8:30 decides whether the market finishes pricing this hike or hands the odds back.