Kevin Warsh is saying rate cuts may be a difficult sell in this current environment. He spoke at the G20 today and suggested AI capex has changed what growth is possible and that it's moved faster than even the people building it expected. After 2008 rates went to near zero and companies put less of their money into building than they had before. They bought back their own stock instead. AI is changing that. Business investment is growing at its fastest rate since 2021 and he says more than half of that growth is the AI buildout. All that building is money being spent. Companies are hiring people, buying equipment and paying for power. So the economy is already growing because of it. That is what makes a cut hard to justify. Cutting makes borrowing cheaper so more people borrow and spend. You would be adding demand to an economy that is already doing well and inflation would run hotter than it already is. The thing that is supposed to fix that inflation is AI itself. But building it does the opposite. The part where AI makes things cheaper is somewhere in the future and Warsh said on Friday he doesn't know when that would be.
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