BlockInfinity Market Report · 7/18 Weekend: Middle East Escalation Meets Thin Liquidity: BTC/ETH in Weak Balance, Awaiting Breakout — Avoid Catching Falling Knives 🌍 Macro & Geopolitics (This Cycle’s Core Theme) Over the weekend, U.S. equities and Treasuries were closed; the focus shifted entirely to the Middle East — conflict escalated sharply. Iran claimed strikes on U.S. military targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan; a seawater desalination and power plant in Kuwait was attacked, causing multiple casualties. Iran announced it would cease implementing the Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding and warned that if the U.S. military targets its infrastructure, Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports, as well as Fujairah and Jebel Ali ports, should prepare for evacuation. The GCC labeled the actions “war crimes,” reigniting focus on Hormuz Strait navigation security (Iraq has rerouted oil exports via Syria to bypass the Strait). By midday, conditions worsened further (verified): On Saturday, Iran launched missile strikes on the Muwaffaq Salti U.S. military base in Jordan, killing two U.S. service members and leaving one missing — the first U.S. combat fatalities since this round of conflict resumed, bringing total deaths to 16 and injuries to over 430. Anti-war sentiment is rising domestically in the U.S. Trump has received multiple proposals to expand military operations, including threats to strike Iranian civilian and energy infrastructure to weaken its control over Hormuz. U.S. media report plans to deploy approximately 100 additional tanker aircraft to the Middle East. 🧩 Transmission Framework Remains Unchanged: Escalation → Oil Price & Hormuz Risk Premium → Inflation → Higher Rate Hike Expectations → Rising Real Rates → Pressure on Gold and BTC. This war is not being priced as a safe-haven event, but rather as “rate hikes.” **Key watch: Monday’s opening gap in oil prices — more critical than BTC itself.** Hedge factors: Friday’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment rebounded to 54.4 (vs. 51 expected, prior 49.5); 1-year inflation expectations fell to 4.2% (from 4.6%, dovish). However, earlier this week’s Philadelphia Fed index surged to 41.4, and the Fed’s “hiking camp” narrative persists; CME September rate hike odds are nearly 50-50. 📈 Technicals · BTC / ETH BTC: $64,090 → $64,490 (+0.7%) at midday: Daily chart above MA20 (63,041) and MA50 (63,368), but still far below MA200 (73,088) = bear market rally; RSI at 55 neutral; range: 62.4k–65.6k. 4H chart tightly clustered around MA20 (64,102) and MA50 (63,896) = critical support/resistance zone; strength confirmed only if price holds above 64,700. 1H Bollinger Bands narrowed to 0.48% = extreme compression; breakout imminent — watch for sustained hold above 64,400. Resistance: 64,400 / 64,730 / 65,590 | Support: 62,975 / 62,400 / 61,800. ETH: $1,842 → $1,857 (+0.8%) at midday: Daily chart above MA20 (1,781) and MA50 (1,734), with MA200 (2,184) far above; RSI at 56.6. 4H RSI at 28.8 = deeply oversold, resting atop MA50 (1,834) = oversold bounce within weakness. Key level: 1,833 (daily support + 4H MA50) is the pivot — holding and reclaiming 1,850 → target 1,900–1,946; break below 1,800 signals weakness toward 1,794. ETH is closer to oversold thresholds than BTC. SOL $75.3 (+0.1%) weakest. 💾 U.S. Equities · Storage Trio (Market Closed Weekend — Monitor Friday Close + 24/7 Perps) Continuing under pressure (spillover from Korea quake): SNDK $1,342 → $1,343 (-5%~-10%) worst hit; Hynix ADR $152 (-2.7%~-7.7%); MU $839 → $838 (-3.5%~-5.2%); Hynix Korean shares $1,152 (-5.1%); INTC $93.6 (-2%). MU has broken below the $890–910 accumulation zone; SNDK has broken below $1,530. Drivers: ChangXin IPO subscription draining liquidity + leveraged liquidations — **fundamentals unchallenged** (earnings guidance all surged; InnoLight denied 2027 price cuts). Counter-trend strength: SPCX $126 → $128 (+1.3%~+1.4%), commercial aerospace/SpaceX narrative decoupled from tech sell-off. News: Oracle (ORCL) revealed billions in unexpected cost overruns on data center projects (The Information). 🎯 Avoid Catching Falling Knives: Wait for MU to reclaim $890–950 or SNDK to reclaim $1,530–1,700 before considering long positions; A-share equivalents (storage/optical modules/PCB) are also mid-cycle corrections. 🔬 Derivatives & Sentiment Funding rates neither side crowded (BTC +0.002%~+0.0085%/8h mildly positive; ETH near zero/mildly negative) = no short squeeze or cascade fuel; weekend thin liquidity =存量博弈 (存量博弈 = existing position trading). Open Interest: BTC ~$1.975B (flat over 24h); ETH ~$1.31B (-4.47% over 24h) = ETH continues deleveraging. Long/Short Account Ratio: BTC 1.59 / ETH 1.82 (retail net longs, more pronounced in ETH — use as contrarian indicator). Fear & Greed Index: 25 “Extreme Fear” (yesterday 27); Spot Premium: -0.06%~-0.072% / ~-$41~-$46 = U.S.-based spot buyers still absent.📊 Trading Volume BTC 24h volume: $2.46B vs ETH $2.63B — ETH has surpassed BTC in volume for multiple consecutive days, indicating active rotation. However, ETH exhibits “high turnover + declining OI + flat price” =存量博弈/去杠杆 (存量博弈/leveraging down), not incremental long positioning. Volume is present but not indicative of a healthy trend expansion. Overall volume contracted over the weekend; do not mistake price spikes under low liquidity for signals. 🎯 Comprehensive Assessment Crypto: Both BTC and ETH remain below their daily MA200 — the broader structure remains a bear market rally. Short-term stability is maintained by MA20/50. The 1H Bollinger Bands are extremely compressed — a breakout is imminent, but direction remains uncertain. Given low weekend volume, avoid heavy directional bets. Relative strength: ETH’s 4H RSI at 28.8 (oversold) and holding at $1,833 presents a better tactical rebound opportunity than BTC. The biggest wildcard lies outside the market: if Middle East tensions escalate and push oil prices higher on Monday → risk assets (including BTC) face pressure while gold strengthens; if de-escalation occurs, the rally continues and the “rate hike” chain loosens inversely. ⚠️ Today’s Strategy & Risks · BTC: Do not chase above $65.6K; only consider a mild bullish bias if price holds above $64,400–64,700 on the 4H chart, targeting $65.6K. Weakness confirmed if price breaks below $62,400–63K. Position size ≤ 1/3, use wide stop-losses. · ETH: Light longs above $1,833 targeting $1,900–1,946, stop-loss below $1,800. Exit if price breaks below $1,800. · Storage: Stay观望 (on hold); wait for MU to reclaim $890–950 or SNDK to reclaim $1,530–1,700. Do not catch falling knives — if you must, limit position to ≤1/3 and only against the trend. · 🔥 Risks: ① Escalation in Middle East / Hormuz Strait (oil gap on Monday); ② Monday U.S. equity market gap-down on geopolitical risk; ③ Fed “hawkish” sentiment intensifying; ④ ChangXin IPO continuing to drain liquidity. · Weekend low liquidity: Avoid heavy positions, naked shorts, or chasing longs. Control position size — never trade without stops. Preserve your capital. —— BlockInfinity Research · Powered By Wesley