Yup. Game theory says allocate here, and keep a healthy reserve in case it goes lower, to lower your cost average. If it goes higher, you deploy the rest at some higher invalidation. We don’t know that it’ll keep going up from here, but we also don’t know that it’ll go lower Doing some allocation here is a boring middle of the road approach that doesn’t even necessarily skew optimistic about a bottom being in, It just says “I don’t know, and this is good enough, and this plan accounts for all outcomes” Meanwhile, there’s a small but very real risk that you’re sidelined and have some higher invalidation (67k? 72k? 80-something?), and it hits, you end up deploying into a fakeout or local false breakout rather than the durable trend turnaround confirmation. And then your entry is ass, and will be months late to LTCG tax
doug funnieShare
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